500 FXUS63 KMPX 151732 AAB AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Southwest MN will see a brief period of elevated to significant fire weather conditions this afternoon. - A cold snap is expected Sunday night into Tuesday before temperatures moderate towards the end of the week. Mostly dry weather is expected today, though an isolated rain/snow shower may occur over Rusk county, WI near midday. Here, slightly better moisture should exist underneath the cyclonic flow from the broad upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will rebound as a lobe of an 850 mb thermal ridge quickly passes through ahead of another cold front. Most of the CWA will have highs in the 50s but a few low 60s are possible in southwest MN. The biggest concern today will be a brief period of elevated to significant fire weather conditions across southwest MN. Decreased moisture accompanying the warmer temperatures will create a transient area of very low RH (percentages in the low 20s to even mid teens) ahead of the front. Combined with northwesterly winds reaching or exceeding 25 knot gusts, this will create a very hazardous environment for fires. Have issued an SPS for critical fire weather conditions across southwestern MN that will be valid until the cold front passes through Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night will cool into the mid 30s as we begin our expected early week cold snap. A strong, northerly jetstreak and embedded wave within the larger Great Lakes trough will advect cold air from central Canada into the Upper Midwest. Highs Sunday will only reach the lower to mid 40s and continued breezy northwesterly winds will make for unpleasant conditions for those outside. Some isolated rain/snow showers may again occur across extreme eastern MN and west-central WI underneath the cyclonic flow. Temperatures will continue to tank over the next 36 hours: Sunday night lows in the 20s, Monday highs struggling to reach 40, and Monday night lows bottoming out in the upper teens to lower 20s. (Forecast lows Monday night are currently 15-20 degrees below normal!) Long-range guidance suggests that temperatures will slowly improve as we head towards the end the work week due to the Great Lakes trough slowly filling and meandering east. Meanwhile, strong thermal ridging over the Intermountain Rockies will try to slide east and "push out" the remaining cold air over the Upper Midwest. How quickly this occurs is uncertain, but it appears that warmer weather is on the horizon towards the end of next week. Long-range guidance does favor a transition to ridging and eventual zonal flow by next weekend. However, the one thing that isn't favored in the long- range? Precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Mid level clouds will increase from north to south this afternoon. Bases could drop to MVFR tonight or early Sunday along and north of I-94. Wind will veer west northwest today, then increase Sunday. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind NNW 15G25 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...Borghoff