398 
FXUS63 KOAX 121148
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
648 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Key Messages;

 - New Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through 7 PM for
   portions of NE Nebraska and Monona County, IA. (See Fire 
   Weather discussion below)

 - New Wind Advisory for this afternoon through 7 PM for NE
   Nebraska.

 - No additional significant precipitation expected through the
   next 7 days at least.

 - Cooler temperatures stick around through this weekend into
   early next week.

The cold front has moved across the area this morning and 
northwesterly winds have dropped temperatures into the upper 40s 
to mid 50s across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A strong 
northwesterly pressure gradient behind the front will cause winds 
to ramp up later this morning, reaching advisory criteria starting
around noon today, with gusts up to 50 mph possible this 
afternoon. We will have a trailing shortwave trigger at least some
clouds if not a few sprinkles across our counties in NE Nebraska 
and SW Iowa. Model soundings show a significant dry layer at the 
surface with clouds moving in around 8000-10000 feet, so it may be
more of a virga scenario with only a few sprinkles hitting the 
ground if any. This will move out of the area by 5 PM with skies 
clearing again by sunset. Winds will also decrease below advisory 
criteria by sunset, though breezy northwesterly winds will 
continue through the overnight hours. 

Thursday is looking like another windy, dry day this time without
any clouds. This looks like a critical fire weather day with the
potential for another wind advisory for the afternoon hours and
humidity dropping to around or just below 20 percent. This
northwesterly flow pattern sticks around through the end of the
week as a near stationary upper-level trough sits over the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan and an upper-level ridge builds into the 
Intermountain Northwest. This will continue to feed cooler 
Canadian air into Northeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa with highs
staying in the low-to-mid 60s through the weekend and lows in the
mid-30s to mid 40s. 

As we go into early next week, the ridge to our west becomes more
established over the northern Rockies and brings a tap of even
cooler air from the Arctic down into the Upper Plains. This will
cool highs down early next week into the mid-to-upper 50s and
bring overnight lows down into the upper 20s to low 30s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

A gusty TAF period is set for today, with the morning starting out
more calm as northwesterly winds blow at 5-10 kts. By 15/16z winds
will begin gusting over 20 kts at all sites before gusting above
30 kts by 17/18 our of the northwest. Winds are expected to
subside by 02/03z shifting to be out of the WNW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

I figured I'd break this out so I can go more into detail on the
products out and why. This morning we upgraded our Fire Weather
Watch in our northeastern Nebraska counties and in Monona County,
IA to a Red Flag Warning. Humidity this afternoon will be around
20 percent this afternoon, and with how dry our area is and 
strong northwesterly winds any fires that start will be likely to
spread quickly. The next few days are NOT good days for burning
due to strong northwesterly winds and dry conditions. Right now we
are leaving our southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa counties
under a Fire Weather Watch to monitor humidity through the 
morning hours. Due to a shortwave moving across the area this 
afternoon around the same time these areas should be the driest, 
this may keep conditions a bit more humid with RH values up closer
to 30-35 percent. If this shortwave doesn't have as much of an 
impact on humidity as the models suggest, they may need to be 
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as well. 

Conditions will be very similar on Thursday as we continue to see
strong, dry northwesterly winds, this time without any cloud cover
which will allow humidity possibly drop as low as 15-20 percent.
If forecast continues to look like it does right now we will
likely need another Red Flag Warning for at least all our counties
in Nebraska. Right now models don't have us getting quite as dry
on Friday, likely due to a weakening pressure gradient and weaker
northwesterly flow. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday 
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for 
     NEZ045-052-053-066>068-078-088>093.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.

IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     IAZ043.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday 
     evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090.

     Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for 
     IAZ055-056-069-079-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen
FIRE WEATHER...McCoy