398 FXUS63 KOAX 121148 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 648 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Key Messages; - New Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through 7 PM for portions of NE Nebraska and Monona County, IA. (See Fire Weather discussion below) - New Wind Advisory for this afternoon through 7 PM for NE Nebraska. - No additional significant precipitation expected through the next 7 days at least. - Cooler temperatures stick around through this weekend into early next week. The cold front has moved across the area this morning and northwesterly winds have dropped temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A strong northwesterly pressure gradient behind the front will cause winds to ramp up later this morning, reaching advisory criteria starting around noon today, with gusts up to 50 mph possible this afternoon. We will have a trailing shortwave trigger at least some clouds if not a few sprinkles across our counties in NE Nebraska and SW Iowa. Model soundings show a significant dry layer at the surface with clouds moving in around 8000-10000 feet, so it may be more of a virga scenario with only a few sprinkles hitting the ground if any. This will move out of the area by 5 PM with skies clearing again by sunset. Winds will also decrease below advisory criteria by sunset, though breezy northwesterly winds will continue through the overnight hours. Thursday is looking like another windy, dry day this time without any clouds. This looks like a critical fire weather day with the potential for another wind advisory for the afternoon hours and humidity dropping to around or just below 20 percent. This northwesterly flow pattern sticks around through the end of the week as a near stationary upper-level trough sits over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and an upper-level ridge builds into the Intermountain Northwest. This will continue to feed cooler Canadian air into Northeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa with highs staying in the low-to-mid 60s through the weekend and lows in the mid-30s to mid 40s. As we go into early next week, the ridge to our west becomes more established over the northern Rockies and brings a tap of even cooler air from the Arctic down into the Upper Plains. This will cool highs down early next week into the mid-to-upper 50s and bring overnight lows down into the upper 20s to low 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 A gusty TAF period is set for today, with the morning starting out more calm as northwesterly winds blow at 5-10 kts. By 15/16z winds will begin gusting over 20 kts at all sites before gusting above 30 kts by 17/18 our of the northwest. Winds are expected to subside by 02/03z shifting to be out of the WNW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 I figured I'd break this out so I can go more into detail on the products out and why. This morning we upgraded our Fire Weather Watch in our northeastern Nebraska counties and in Monona County, IA to a Red Flag Warning. Humidity this afternoon will be around 20 percent this afternoon, and with how dry our area is and strong northwesterly winds any fires that start will be likely to spread quickly. The next few days are NOT good days for burning due to strong northwesterly winds and dry conditions. Right now we are leaving our southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa counties under a Fire Weather Watch to monitor humidity through the morning hours. Due to a shortwave moving across the area this afternoon around the same time these areas should be the driest, this may keep conditions a bit more humid with RH values up closer to 30-35 percent. If this shortwave doesn't have as much of an impact on humidity as the models suggest, they may need to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as well. Conditions will be very similar on Thursday as we continue to see strong, dry northwesterly winds, this time without any cloud cover which will allow humidity possibly drop as low as 15-20 percent. If forecast continues to look like it does right now we will likely need another Red Flag Warning for at least all our counties in Nebraska. Right now models don't have us getting quite as dry on Friday, likely due to a weakening pressure gradient and weaker northwesterly flow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for NEZ045-052-053-066>068-078-088>093. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-090. Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-090. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Petersen FIRE WEATHER...McCoy