876 
FXUS61 KOKX 080820
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
420 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the west gradually builds toward the area
through tonight. The high will give way to a weakening frontal 
boundary from the north Sunday night into Monday. High pressure
will be over the area Tuesday and Wednesday, before pushing 
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A frontal system 
approaches late Thursday, with a possible wave of low pressure 
developing along the front for Thursday night into early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Any light rain across eastern Long Island into southeastern
Connecticut will be exiting to the south and east by 14Z as an
embedded shortwave slowly moves east through today and a strong
upper jet to the south of the shortwave moves offshore.
Otherwise a longwave trough will remain across the northeast as
surface high pressure builds toward the area. A cooler airmass
will be in place behind the cold front with temperatures several
degrees below seasonal normals with a cyclonic flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be slowly building in from the west tonight,
and with near clear skies and winds decoupling and become near
calm across much of the area near ideal radiational cooling will
take place. With a cooler airmass remaining in place 
temperatures across the interior from Orange and Putnam counties
of New York through interior southern Connecticut likely fall 
into the mid 30s. Dewpoints will be in the lower 30s and areas
of frost are likely. A frost advisory has been issued for these
areas from midnight to 800 AM EDT Sunday. Also,temperatures in
the Long Island Pine Barrens will be falling into the lower to
mid 30s and patchy frost is possible. Used a blend of the GFS
and NAM MOS for lows. 

Sunday through Monday will be dry as surface high pressure
gradually weakens as a weakening cold front slowly pushes to the
south. Another shortwave will be rotating toward the area for
Monday as the front moves south, however, there will be little
moisture with an increase of clouds across the northern areas.

Temperatures remain below seasonal normals Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An amplifying trough over the Canadian Rockies will swing east 
into the Canadian prairies to begin the period. In response to 
this downstream over the east look for heights to begin to rise,
especially towards Tue night into Wed. This will result in dry 
conditions and warming temperatures. For the time being did not 
stray away from NBM with temps, although one could make the 
argument perhaps to go warmer than the consensus guidance 
towards Wednesday night into Thursday as a southerly flow gets 
established as a deep high pressure ridge begins to push 
offshore. By Thursday deterministic guidance is pointing to 
850mb temps around 10 to 11C. This would typically correlate to 
temps of 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the absence of clouds. 
Therefore subsequent forecast cycles I would not be surprised 
if warmer temps were forecast for Wed night into Thu night in 
advance of the frontal system, which looks to be a cold front. 
The question is, will this front swing through quickly, or slow 
down with a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary. 
The previous ECMWF run was hinting at this along with the GGEM. 
But the newer ECMWF appears to be more in line with the GFS and 
ICON, with the GGEM still dragging its heels with the frontal 
boundary. Not sure how much lower latitude air can surge up 
ahead of the boundary and give more in terms of higher PWATs and
heavier rainfall. For now introducing the next chance of rain 
late on Thursday. Low end likely PoPs were used for later 
Thursday night and early Friday. For now, have PoPs decreasing 
through the day on Friday, but confidence is only average to 
slightly below average with the speed of the front. Weak high 
pressure is then expected to return by the start of next weekend
with a likely return to cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in from the west overnight as a 
cold front gets further offshore. High pressure settles 
southwest of the area Saturday night.

VFR. Brief, fast moving rain showers will move through the 
metro terminals over the next few hours and spread eastward 
during the pre- dawn hours , but there should be no impacts to 
flight categories. Northwest terminals like KSWF and KHPN will 
likely not see any shower activity.

NW winds 7 to 12 kt overnight. Northwest flow continues through 
early Saturday afternoon, with the winds shifting 20 to 30 degrees 
more to the west towards 18-19z. Wind speeds will be around 10 kt 
for the day on Saturday, and then lighten closer to 5 kt Saturday 
night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief, quick moving showers / light rain will move through the metro 
terminals overnight. There is a low chance of seeing brief MVFR 
conditions with these showers.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night...VFR. Light W winds around 5 kt. 
.Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt.
.Monday through Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today through Monday
as high pressure remains near or over the forecast waters.

Rather tranquil conditions across the coastal waters as high 
pressure settles nearby. This will result in very little pressure 
gradient, and thus light winds. Seas will average around 2 ft 
Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds become more southerly on Wednesday 
and Wednesday night as high pressure pushes offshore and a return 
flow gets established.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts are anticipated through the forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET