876 FXUS61 KOKX 080820 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 420 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the west gradually builds toward the area through tonight. The high will give way to a weakening frontal boundary from the north Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will be over the area Tuesday and Wednesday, before pushing offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A frontal system approaches late Thursday, with a possible wave of low pressure developing along the front for Thursday night into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Any light rain across eastern Long Island into southeastern Connecticut will be exiting to the south and east by 14Z as an embedded shortwave slowly moves east through today and a strong upper jet to the south of the shortwave moves offshore. Otherwise a longwave trough will remain across the northeast as surface high pressure builds toward the area. A cooler airmass will be in place behind the cold front with temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals with a cyclonic flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be slowly building in from the west tonight, and with near clear skies and winds decoupling and become near calm across much of the area near ideal radiational cooling will take place. With a cooler airmass remaining in place temperatures across the interior from Orange and Putnam counties of New York through interior southern Connecticut likely fall into the mid 30s. Dewpoints will be in the lower 30s and areas of frost are likely. A frost advisory has been issued for these areas from midnight to 800 AM EDT Sunday. Also,temperatures in the Long Island Pine Barrens will be falling into the lower to mid 30s and patchy frost is possible. Used a blend of the GFS and NAM MOS for lows. Sunday through Monday will be dry as surface high pressure gradually weakens as a weakening cold front slowly pushes to the south. Another shortwave will be rotating toward the area for Monday as the front moves south, however, there will be little moisture with an increase of clouds across the northern areas. Temperatures remain below seasonal normals Sunday through Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An amplifying trough over the Canadian Rockies will swing east into the Canadian prairies to begin the period. In response to this downstream over the east look for heights to begin to rise, especially towards Tue night into Wed. This will result in dry conditions and warming temperatures. For the time being did not stray away from NBM with temps, although one could make the argument perhaps to go warmer than the consensus guidance towards Wednesday night into Thursday as a southerly flow gets established as a deep high pressure ridge begins to push offshore. By Thursday deterministic guidance is pointing to 850mb temps around 10 to 11C. This would typically correlate to temps of 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the absence of clouds. Therefore subsequent forecast cycles I would not be surprised if warmer temps were forecast for Wed night into Thu night in advance of the frontal system, which looks to be a cold front. The question is, will this front swing through quickly, or slow down with a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary. The previous ECMWF run was hinting at this along with the GGEM. But the newer ECMWF appears to be more in line with the GFS and ICON, with the GGEM still dragging its heels with the frontal boundary. Not sure how much lower latitude air can surge up ahead of the boundary and give more in terms of higher PWATs and heavier rainfall. For now introducing the next chance of rain late on Thursday. Low end likely PoPs were used for later Thursday night and early Friday. For now, have PoPs decreasing through the day on Friday, but confidence is only average to slightly below average with the speed of the front. Weak high pressure is then expected to return by the start of next weekend with a likely return to cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure gradually builds in from the west overnight as a cold front gets further offshore. High pressure settles southwest of the area Saturday night. VFR. Brief, fast moving rain showers will move through the metro terminals over the next few hours and spread eastward during the pre- dawn hours , but there should be no impacts to flight categories. Northwest terminals like KSWF and KHPN will likely not see any shower activity. NW winds 7 to 12 kt overnight. Northwest flow continues through early Saturday afternoon, with the winds shifting 20 to 30 degrees more to the west towards 18-19z. Wind speeds will be around 10 kt for the day on Saturday, and then lighten closer to 5 kt Saturday night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief, quick moving showers / light rain will move through the metro terminals overnight. There is a low chance of seeing brief MVFR conditions with these showers. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night...VFR. Light W winds around 5 kt. .Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt. .Monday through Wednesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today through Monday as high pressure remains near or over the forecast waters. Rather tranquil conditions across the coastal waters as high pressure settles nearby. This will result in very little pressure gradient, and thus light winds. Seas will average around 2 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds become more southerly on Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure pushes offshore and a return flow gets established. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological impacts are anticipated through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ067-068. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JE AVIATION...JE MARINE...JE/MET HYDROLOGY...JE/MET