025 
FXUS65 KTFX 072339
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
535 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

Quiet weather conditions are expected over much of North Central and 
Southwest MT for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will 
warm back above normal this weekend, with comfortable overnight low 
temperatures. The next chance for precipitation arrives Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper-level ridging will continue to keep much of North-central and 
Southwest Montana quiet throughout the weekend, with a gradual 
warming trend through Monday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to 
be 10 degrees above seasonal averages, with most locations in the 
low to mid 70s. Primary focus through Saturday morning is the onset 
of patchy dense fog across many locations, similarly to the previous 
morning.

A cold front from Canada is then expected to move southward into the 
CWA Monday night into Tuesday. Cluster analysis on Day 4 depicts a 
trough fracture Tuesday night. It's just a matter of where the 
trough's amplitude settles, as considerable differences have 
occurred these last few days within the models. That being said, the 
likely result at this time is suggesting light precipitation in the 
form of rainfall across the plains, with the potential for light 
snow accumulation over the ridge tops. Additionally, as a result of 
the cold front, afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be 15 to 20 
degrees cooler than on Monday, with most locations lingering around 
the mid 50s. 

Furthermore, the NBM v4.1 suggests an increase of winds across the 
Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, with a >70% chance of wind 
gusts exceeding 55 mph and >40% chance of exceeding 65 mph. At this 
time, wind speeds are expected to remain below warning criteria, but 
this may be something to consider closer to date.

By Wednesday, an upper-level ridge will begin to build over the 
Pacific Northwest, extending deep into the Gulf of Alaska before 
slowly transversing eastward across Canada. Afternoon temperatures 
will begin to rebound a bit, with most locations in the upper 60s by 
the end of the week, remaining a few degrees above seasonal 
averages. This will also keep the foreseeable future relatively dry, 
especially as the ridge intensifies into late next week. - Pierce

&&

.AVIATION...
535 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (08/00Z TAF period)

VFR conditions are mostly expected across North Central, Central, 
and Southwest Montana through at least the next 24 hours. A 
generally dry but weak northerly flow aloft will move scattered thin 
high cloudiness over the area. However, low level moisture still 
lingers over the plains and in the valleys. As a result, areas of 
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible again in some areas between 09Z 
and 18Z, similar to last night and this morning. However, confidence 
in this directly impacting the terminals is low at this time and is 
only alluded to in this set of TAFs for now.
-Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation 
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  71  39  71 /   0   0   0   0 
CTB  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0 
HLN  41  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  34  68  35  70 /   0   0   0   0 
WYS  24  64  25  66 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  36  67  37  70 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  35  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0 
LWT  37  68  39  68 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls