025 FXUS65 KTFX 072339 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 535 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather conditions are expected over much of North Central and Southwest MT for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures will warm back above normal this weekend, with comfortable overnight low temperatures. The next chance for precipitation arrives Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridging will continue to keep much of North-central and Southwest Montana quiet throughout the weekend, with a gradual warming trend through Monday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be 10 degrees above seasonal averages, with most locations in the low to mid 70s. Primary focus through Saturday morning is the onset of patchy dense fog across many locations, similarly to the previous morning. A cold front from Canada is then expected to move southward into the CWA Monday night into Tuesday. Cluster analysis on Day 4 depicts a trough fracture Tuesday night. It's just a matter of where the trough's amplitude settles, as considerable differences have occurred these last few days within the models. That being said, the likely result at this time is suggesting light precipitation in the form of rainfall across the plains, with the potential for light snow accumulation over the ridge tops. Additionally, as a result of the cold front, afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than on Monday, with most locations lingering around the mid 50s. Furthermore, the NBM v4.1 suggests an increase of winds across the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, with a >70% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph and >40% chance of exceeding 65 mph. At this time, wind speeds are expected to remain below warning criteria, but this may be something to consider closer to date. By Wednesday, an upper-level ridge will begin to build over the Pacific Northwest, extending deep into the Gulf of Alaska before slowly transversing eastward across Canada. Afternoon temperatures will begin to rebound a bit, with most locations in the upper 60s by the end of the week, remaining a few degrees above seasonal averages. This will also keep the foreseeable future relatively dry, especially as the ridge intensifies into late next week. - Pierce && .AVIATION... 535 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (08/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions are mostly expected across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana through at least the next 24 hours. A generally dry but weak northerly flow aloft will move scattered thin high cloudiness over the area. However, low level moisture still lingers over the plains and in the valleys. As a result, areas of MVFR to IFR conditions are possible again in some areas between 09Z and 18Z, similar to last night and this morning. However, confidence in this directly impacting the terminals is low at this time and is only alluded to in this set of TAFs for now. -Coulston Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 37 71 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 34 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 41 71 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 34 68 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 24 64 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 36 67 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 35 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 37 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls