821 
FXUS61 KILN 071909
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
309 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves in for the weekend bringing mostly sunny skies 
and colder temperatures. A slight warm up is expected for the first 
half of the work week as the high pressure moves off to the east. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front has continued to push southeast, heralding in a much 
cooler air mass behind it. Temperatures top out in the mid 50s to 
our north, low 60s in the south, but with breezy conditions, the 
"feels like" temperature between yesterday and today will be stark. 
Surface winds have shifted to out of the northwest and will gain a 
more northerly component throughout the day, around 10-15 mph with 
gusts up to 25 mph. Slightly higher moisture content remains to our 
northeast (in fact, northwesterly flow pulls some additional 
moisture off of Lake Erie into north central/ northeastern OH) and 
light rain showers look to stay out of our FA for the remainder of 
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Thicker cloud cover continues to move off to the northeast, leaving 
partly cloudy skies. Winds will decrease to 3-5 mph out of the north 
during the evening and into overnight. The cold air advection regime 
continues and temperatures cool well into the 30s overnight into 
Saturday morning. Low lying areas and parts of our northwest CWA may 
see temperatures below freezing and, therefore, have issued a Freeze 
Warning for the NW CWA. The southern counties of the CWA will likely 
see widespread frost development.

Surface high pressure works its way in on Saturday and the area sits 
in the convergence region of a mid/upper level shortwave. This 
results in large scale subsidence and mostly clear skies. Cooler 
temperatures are in store for the day, with highs reaching the mid 
to upper 50s. 

Saturday night, the center of the high pressure sits just to our 
south and winds decrease overnight, while clear skies dominate.
Nocturnal radiational cooling and calm winds will help drop 
temperatures into the 30s again. Have continued the Freeze Watch for 
southern counties, where influence of the high is strongest and 
winds are nearly calm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move off to the east through the end of 
the weekend. This will provide for dry conditions early next week 
along with a warming trend into mid week. Highs on Sunday will be in 
the low to mid 60s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to 
lower 40s with some patchy frost possible across parts of our 
southeast. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue 
through Tuesday with highs by Tuesday into the low to mid 70s. 

A digging mid/upper level trough over the northern Plains on 
Wednesday will translate into a closed low as it shifts into the 
Great Lakes region through the end of the week. This will help push 
an associated cold front east across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night 
into Thursday along with an increasing chance for rain showers. 
Cooler air will move in behind the front with highs on Thursday back 
into the 60s and highs on Friday only in the mid 50s to lower 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period starts out with the northernmost TAF site's MVFR CIGs 
lifting to BKN VFR in the post-frontal environment. For the 
afternoon, winds will be of the north/northwest at 10-15 knots with 
gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds lessen in intensity heading 
into the evening.

Overnight, VFR conditions with light northerly winds prevail for 
most sites with the exception of KLUK, which was lowered to MVFR 
Saturday morning. Guidance hints at river valley fog formation, but 
confidence is not overly robust, given 4-5 knot winds in the area. 
Should the winds in the river valley go calm, fog likelihood 
increases. 

Saturday, high pressure builds into the area from the west and skies 
should be mostly clear. Winds out of the north around 5 knots, 
backing to out of the west in the afternoon. VFR conditions. 

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>054-060>063-070>072.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ055-056-
     064-065-073-074-077>082-088.
     Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for OHZ072-073-078>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
     Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-
     059-066.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for INZ073>075-
     080.
     Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA