821 FXUS61 KILN 071909 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 309 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves in for the weekend bringing mostly sunny skies and colder temperatures. A slight warm up is expected for the first half of the work week as the high pressure moves off to the east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cold front has continued to push southeast, heralding in a much cooler air mass behind it. Temperatures top out in the mid 50s to our north, low 60s in the south, but with breezy conditions, the "feels like" temperature between yesterday and today will be stark. Surface winds have shifted to out of the northwest and will gain a more northerly component throughout the day, around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Slightly higher moisture content remains to our northeast (in fact, northwesterly flow pulls some additional moisture off of Lake Erie into north central/ northeastern OH) and light rain showers look to stay out of our FA for the remainder of the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Thicker cloud cover continues to move off to the northeast, leaving partly cloudy skies. Winds will decrease to 3-5 mph out of the north during the evening and into overnight. The cold air advection regime continues and temperatures cool well into the 30s overnight into Saturday morning. Low lying areas and parts of our northwest CWA may see temperatures below freezing and, therefore, have issued a Freeze Warning for the NW CWA. The southern counties of the CWA will likely see widespread frost development. Surface high pressure works its way in on Saturday and the area sits in the convergence region of a mid/upper level shortwave. This results in large scale subsidence and mostly clear skies. Cooler temperatures are in store for the day, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. Saturday night, the center of the high pressure sits just to our south and winds decrease overnight, while clear skies dominate. Nocturnal radiational cooling and calm winds will help drop temperatures into the 30s again. Have continued the Freeze Watch for southern counties, where influence of the high is strongest and winds are nearly calm. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will move off to the east through the end of the weekend. This will provide for dry conditions early next week along with a warming trend into mid week. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 60s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with some patchy frost possible across parts of our southeast. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday with highs by Tuesday into the low to mid 70s. A digging mid/upper level trough over the northern Plains on Wednesday will translate into a closed low as it shifts into the Great Lakes region through the end of the week. This will help push an associated cold front east across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday along with an increasing chance for rain showers. Cooler air will move in behind the front with highs on Thursday back into the 60s and highs on Friday only in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The period starts out with the northernmost TAF site's MVFR CIGs lifting to BKN VFR in the post-frontal environment. For the afternoon, winds will be of the north/northwest at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds lessen in intensity heading into the evening. Overnight, VFR conditions with light northerly winds prevail for most sites with the exception of KLUK, which was lowered to MVFR Saturday morning. Guidance hints at river valley fog formation, but confidence is not overly robust, given 4-5 knot winds in the area. Should the winds in the river valley go calm, fog likelihood increases. Saturday, high pressure builds into the area from the west and skies should be mostly clear. Winds out of the north around 5 knots, backing to out of the west in the afternoon. VFR conditions. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>054-060>063-070>072. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ055-056- 064-065-073-074-077>082-088. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ072-073-078>082-088. KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058- 059-066. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for INZ073>075- 080. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CA