187 
FXUS61 KALY 071736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon with mainly 
isolated to scattered showers.  Mild temperatures will begin the day 
and then fall in the afternoon with the frontal passage, especially 
from the Capital Region north and west. Behind the front, cooler and 
breezy weather is expected. While the weekend will be dry for most 
of the region, some rain showers can't be ruled out over the 
Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1:22PM EDT...A cold front is moving across central and 
northern NY into eastern NY, approaching the Capital District 
this hour. This cold front is associated with a strong mid and 
upper level trough moving across southeast Canada and the Great 
Lakes Region into NY and New England. 

The current KENX radar shows a few scattered showers making
their way eastward into northern Warren County and a few pop up
showers in the northeastern portion of Montgomery County. Due 
to the lack of significant low-level moisture, we have decreased
PoPs within and south of the Capital District. Chance PoPs have
been kept in the Adirondacks to account for the probability of 
moisture advection due increased winds acting to develop some 
lake-effect showers this afternoon. We have also removed the 
chance for thunderstorms due to decreases in instability shown 
on the latest CAMs. Cloud cover was also expanded quicker north 
and west of the Hudson River Valley based on the latest GOES-16 
visible and IR trends. Latest imagery also shows a widespread 
layer of altocu moving in behind the front, confirming our 
previous forecast that clouds will thin due to post frontal cold
air advection over the Hudson River Valley. Some downsloping 
with west to northwest winds of 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-25+
mph or so can be expected this afternoon. Max temps are tricky 
and we slightly adjusted max temps up a few degrees from the 
Capital Region south with the slight delay in frontal timing. 
Currently the Capital Region and south are seeing temperatures 
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Max temps have peaked in the lower 
to mid 50s in parts of the western Adirondacks and have already 
begun to fall per the progression of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the surface boundary, the upper level trough will be
moving across the region for tonight. Despite the cyclonic flow,
there probably won't be too many additional showers are moisture
is lacking. There could be a few lake effect rain showers,
although the expected flow should keep most of these over
central NY. Still, the lake moisture and upslope flow may allow
for some more clouds across the Adirondacks and Catskills, with
mostly cloudy skies in those areas overnight. Otherwise, it will
continue to be breezy at times with the northwest wind and
falling temps. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low
40s in valley areas. However, high terrain areas will range from
the upper 20s in the Adirondacks to the mid 30s in other hills
and mountains.   The air mass coming in will be rather dry, so 
the combination of the light breeze and dry air should help 
prevent much frost from forming. 

On Saturday, large upper trough will continue to be located over
the Northeast with fairly cool temps aloft. 850 hpa temps will
only be 0 to -3 C and daytime temps will range from the mid 40s
in the mountains to the mid 50s in valley areas. High terrain
areas (especially western parts of the region) will continue to
see a decent amount of cloud cover thanks to the cyclonic flow
picking up some lake moisture. Elsewhere, skies will be partly
to mostly sunny, with the most sun in southeastern areas where
downsloping will aid in allowing for more sunshine. Northwest
winds will still be a little on the breezy side, so it will feel
a little chilly outside, especially compared to few mild days we
had towards the end of the week. 

A chilly night is expected for Saturday night, although it won't
be ideal radiational cooling, as high pressure will remain off
to the south over the mid-Atlantic States. Winds will become
light, but may not become completely calm. In addition, skies
will continue to have some passing stratocu clouds, especially
for northern and western areas. As another disturbance over
Ontario rotates around within the main trough, the flow will
align for some lake effect rain showers. These may impact parts
of the western Adirondacks overnight. Elsewhere, it should stay
fairly dry with temps falling into the mid to upper 30s across
the entire area. Some patchy frost is possible across the higher
terrain if winds lighten up enough. 

On Sunday, upper level disturbance will be passing by to the
north. The best dynamics will be north of the region and
moisture is fairly limited, but a few showers (aided by lake
effect) are possible across the Adirondacks. Elsewhere, it
should continue to be dry on Sunday. Sky cover will vary from
mostly cloudy across northern areas to mostly sunny in the
south. Temps will also vary, with only 40s to low 50s in 
northern areas, while the rest of the area will be ranging from 
the mid 50s to low 60s. 

A similar pattern will continue into Sunday night. Behind the
departing disturbance, westerly flow over the eastern Great
Lakes will allow for a few light passing rain showers across the
western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks. Elsewhere, it be dry with
some passing clouds. Temps will mainly be in the upper 30s to
low 40s, although a few cooler spots are possible and some
patchy frost can't be totally ruled out in outlying and high
terrain areas once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period opens with a shortwave passing just south of 
the region as it rotates around the southern extent of broad upper 
troughing. Modest upper ridging and surface high pressure build in 
quickly on Tuesday, followed by a period of dry weather and a 
warming trend through Thursday. A very deep and potent upper trough 
looks to move into the region Thursday and Friday, bringing much 
cooler air following the passage of a cold front.

Beneath broad upper troughing, Monday will see temperatures slightly 
below seasonal norms with some lake effect showers and snow flurries 
possible in the southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley 
as the upper shortwave passes just south of the region. Highs will 
be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and upper 50s to mid 
60s at lower elevations. Any showers will diminish into the evening 
as heights aloft begin to rise and surface high pressure moves in 
from the southwest. Lows Monday night will be on the cool side, with 
widespread mid to upper 30s while the mid-Hudson Valley south from 
the Capital District see low 40s.

High pressure dominates the midweek period yielding dry weather, 
largely clear skies, and a warming trend across the region. Highs 
warm through Thursday when high terrain will see upper 50s to low 
60s and lower elevations mid and upper 60s. Tuesday night will be a 
few degrees warmer than Monday night, but Wednesday night will be 
significantly warmer with widespread lows in the 40s and low 50s 
along the Hudson and Mohawk Rivers.

The approaching high-amplitude upper trough brings a potent cold 
front with rain overspreading the region Thursday. Lows Thursday 
night fall into the upper 30s in the southwestern Adirondacks with 
40s elsewhere. Friday looks to bring much cooler temps behind the 
cold front as showers linger into the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will track southeast across the TAF sites through 
this afternoon, with a brisk northwest wind and some lake 
effect clouds developing in its wake.

The cold front should track through KGFL, KALB and KPSF by 20Z,
and KPOU by 21Z/Fri. A period of MVFR Cigs, and some light
showers will be possible with and just behind the front at KGFL,
KALB and KPSF.

In the wake of the front, mainly VFR Cigs are expected tonight,
however occasional MVFR Cigs could occur, especially at KPSF
where a period of low MVFR Cigs is possible. Any MVFR Cigs 
should lift to VFR between 13Z-15Z/Sat, with mainly VFR 
conditions expected thereafter.

Winds will become west to northwest this afternoon, and increase
to 8-15 KT, with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially at
KALB and KPSF. Winds will become northwest to north tonight at
8-12 KT, with similar winds expected through midday Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...KL