187 FXUS61 KALY 071736 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 136 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region this afternoon with mainly isolated to scattered showers. Mild temperatures will begin the day and then fall in the afternoon with the frontal passage, especially from the Capital Region north and west. Behind the front, cooler and breezy weather is expected. While the weekend will be dry for most of the region, some rain showers can't be ruled out over the Adirondacks. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1:22PM EDT...A cold front is moving across central and northern NY into eastern NY, approaching the Capital District this hour. This cold front is associated with a strong mid and upper level trough moving across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region into NY and New England. The current KENX radar shows a few scattered showers making their way eastward into northern Warren County and a few pop up showers in the northeastern portion of Montgomery County. Due to the lack of significant low-level moisture, we have decreased PoPs within and south of the Capital District. Chance PoPs have been kept in the Adirondacks to account for the probability of moisture advection due increased winds acting to develop some lake-effect showers this afternoon. We have also removed the chance for thunderstorms due to decreases in instability shown on the latest CAMs. Cloud cover was also expanded quicker north and west of the Hudson River Valley based on the latest GOES-16 visible and IR trends. Latest imagery also shows a widespread layer of altocu moving in behind the front, confirming our previous forecast that clouds will thin due to post frontal cold air advection over the Hudson River Valley. Some downsloping with west to northwest winds of 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-25+ mph or so can be expected this afternoon. Max temps are tricky and we slightly adjusted max temps up a few degrees from the Capital Region south with the slight delay in frontal timing. Currently the Capital Region and south are seeing temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Max temps have peaked in the lower to mid 50s in parts of the western Adirondacks and have already begun to fall per the progression of the front. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Behind the surface boundary, the upper level trough will be moving across the region for tonight. Despite the cyclonic flow, there probably won't be too many additional showers are moisture is lacking. There could be a few lake effect rain showers, although the expected flow should keep most of these over central NY. Still, the lake moisture and upslope flow may allow for some more clouds across the Adirondacks and Catskills, with mostly cloudy skies in those areas overnight. Otherwise, it will continue to be breezy at times with the northwest wind and falling temps. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in valley areas. However, high terrain areas will range from the upper 20s in the Adirondacks to the mid 30s in other hills and mountains. The air mass coming in will be rather dry, so the combination of the light breeze and dry air should help prevent much frost from forming. On Saturday, large upper trough will continue to be located over the Northeast with fairly cool temps aloft. 850 hpa temps will only be 0 to -3 C and daytime temps will range from the mid 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in valley areas. High terrain areas (especially western parts of the region) will continue to see a decent amount of cloud cover thanks to the cyclonic flow picking up some lake moisture. Elsewhere, skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with the most sun in southeastern areas where downsloping will aid in allowing for more sunshine. Northwest winds will still be a little on the breezy side, so it will feel a little chilly outside, especially compared to few mild days we had towards the end of the week. A chilly night is expected for Saturday night, although it won't be ideal radiational cooling, as high pressure will remain off to the south over the mid-Atlantic States. Winds will become light, but may not become completely calm. In addition, skies will continue to have some passing stratocu clouds, especially for northern and western areas. As another disturbance over Ontario rotates around within the main trough, the flow will align for some lake effect rain showers. These may impact parts of the western Adirondacks overnight. Elsewhere, it should stay fairly dry with temps falling into the mid to upper 30s across the entire area. Some patchy frost is possible across the higher terrain if winds lighten up enough. On Sunday, upper level disturbance will be passing by to the north. The best dynamics will be north of the region and moisture is fairly limited, but a few showers (aided by lake effect) are possible across the Adirondacks. Elsewhere, it should continue to be dry on Sunday. Sky cover will vary from mostly cloudy across northern areas to mostly sunny in the south. Temps will also vary, with only 40s to low 50s in northern areas, while the rest of the area will be ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. A similar pattern will continue into Sunday night. Behind the departing disturbance, westerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes will allow for a few light passing rain showers across the western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks. Elsewhere, it be dry with some passing clouds. Temps will mainly be in the upper 30s to low 40s, although a few cooler spots are possible and some patchy frost can't be totally ruled out in outlying and high terrain areas once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period opens with a shortwave passing just south of the region as it rotates around the southern extent of broad upper troughing. Modest upper ridging and surface high pressure build in quickly on Tuesday, followed by a period of dry weather and a warming trend through Thursday. A very deep and potent upper trough looks to move into the region Thursday and Friday, bringing much cooler air following the passage of a cold front. Beneath broad upper troughing, Monday will see temperatures slightly below seasonal norms with some lake effect showers and snow flurries possible in the southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the upper shortwave passes just south of the region. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and upper 50s to mid 60s at lower elevations. Any showers will diminish into the evening as heights aloft begin to rise and surface high pressure moves in from the southwest. Lows Monday night will be on the cool side, with widespread mid to upper 30s while the mid-Hudson Valley south from the Capital District see low 40s. High pressure dominates the midweek period yielding dry weather, largely clear skies, and a warming trend across the region. Highs warm through Thursday when high terrain will see upper 50s to low 60s and lower elevations mid and upper 60s. Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer than Monday night, but Wednesday night will be significantly warmer with widespread lows in the 40s and low 50s along the Hudson and Mohawk Rivers. The approaching high-amplitude upper trough brings a potent cold front with rain overspreading the region Thursday. Lows Thursday night fall into the upper 30s in the southwestern Adirondacks with 40s elsewhere. Friday looks to bring much cooler temps behind the cold front as showers linger into the afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will track southeast across the TAF sites through this afternoon, with a brisk northwest wind and some lake effect clouds developing in its wake. The cold front should track through KGFL, KALB and KPSF by 20Z, and KPOU by 21Z/Fri. A period of MVFR Cigs, and some light showers will be possible with and just behind the front at KGFL, KALB and KPSF. In the wake of the front, mainly VFR Cigs are expected tonight, however occasional MVFR Cigs could occur, especially at KPSF where a period of low MVFR Cigs is possible. Any MVFR Cigs should lift to VFR between 13Z-15Z/Sat, with mainly VFR conditions expected thereafter. Winds will become west to northwest this afternoon, and increase to 8-15 KT, with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF. Winds will become northwest to north tonight at 8-12 KT, with similar winds expected through midday Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Gant/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant/Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...KL