345 
FXUS64 KMOB 070929
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
429 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Dry and clear weather conditions prevail across the region through
Saturday. A dry cold front moves across the area tonight into Saturday
morning, ushering in drier and cooler weather. Temperatures today top
out in the middle 80's for most locations, with Saturday's highs much
cooler in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower to middle 80's
near the coast. Overnight lows tonight fall into the middle to upper
50's for most locations, with a few spots touching lower 50's across
south-central Alabama. Tonight may be a bit warmer owing to increased
mid to upper level cloud cover with lows dipping into the middle to
upper 50's inland and lower 60's nearer the coast. 25/13



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Dry weather continues through Sunday night. Aloft, a dry and generally
zonal flow pattern prevails across our forecast area through the period.
A cooler and drier airmass will spread across our region through Sunday
night as surface high pressure builds southward in the wake of the frontal
passage in the near term. Low temperatures each night will generally
range in the upper 40s to low 50s over interior portions of the CWA,
with mid 50s to low 60s near the immediate coast and beach front. JEH/88


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022
 
Conditions are expected to remain dry through Tuesday, with the next 
chance of PoPs returning by Wednesday. Overall, a generally westerly 
to southwesterly flow pattern aloft will remain in place across our
area through the period. Further north, general model consensus has
a trough aloft diving south-southeast across the northern Plains on
Wednesday, and into the OH/TN river valleys by Thursday, with another
cold front associated with the aforementioned trough potentially pushing
across the southeast CONUS on Thursday. Additionally, off to our southwest,
a potential area of low pressure may emerge into the Bay of Campeche by 
mid-week. This could aid in moisture over the Gulf getting pulled northward
into our area by Wednesday and into Thursday, and then potentially phase
with the increasing moisture ahead of the approaching trough and associated
cold front. This pattern looks to be supportive of increasing PoP chances
over our region on Wednesday (20-30%), with better chances on Thursday
(30-40%). As for temps, highs each day are expected to range generally
in the 80s. Low temps exhibit a bit of a warming trend, starting with lows
Monday night ranging in the 50s over inland areas, to the low to mid 60s 
near the coast. By Wednesday night, temps should rebound into the 60s for 
most of the region. JEH/88



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Light onshore flow during the afternoon and light offshore 
flow overnight will continue today. Winds and seas will then 
increase this weekend in response to a cold front expected to pass 
over the marine area tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will 
gradually ease and become easterly through early next week. /13




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  62  83  54  82  53  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   85  65  84  60  83  58  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Destin      83  67  84  63  85  62  86  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   87  58  81  49  80  47  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  84  57  77  49  77  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      84  56  78  47  77  48  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   87  60  85  53  83  50  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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