345 FXUS64 KMOB 070929 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 429 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry and clear weather conditions prevail across the region through Saturday. A dry cold front moves across the area tonight into Saturday morning, ushering in drier and cooler weather. Temperatures today top out in the middle 80's for most locations, with Saturday's highs much cooler in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower to middle 80's near the coast. Overnight lows tonight fall into the middle to upper 50's for most locations, with a few spots touching lower 50's across south-central Alabama. Tonight may be a bit warmer owing to increased mid to upper level cloud cover with lows dipping into the middle to upper 50's inland and lower 60's nearer the coast. 25/13 && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry weather continues through Sunday night. Aloft, a dry and generally zonal flow pattern prevails across our forecast area through the period. A cooler and drier airmass will spread across our region through Sunday night as surface high pressure builds southward in the wake of the frontal passage in the near term. Low temperatures each night will generally range in the upper 40s to low 50s over interior portions of the CWA, with mid 50s to low 60s near the immediate coast and beach front. JEH/88 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Conditions are expected to remain dry through Tuesday, with the next chance of PoPs returning by Wednesday. Overall, a generally westerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft will remain in place across our area through the period. Further north, general model consensus has a trough aloft diving south-southeast across the northern Plains on Wednesday, and into the OH/TN river valleys by Thursday, with another cold front associated with the aforementioned trough potentially pushing across the southeast CONUS on Thursday. Additionally, off to our southwest, a potential area of low pressure may emerge into the Bay of Campeche by mid-week. This could aid in moisture over the Gulf getting pulled northward into our area by Wednesday and into Thursday, and then potentially phase with the increasing moisture ahead of the approaching trough and associated cold front. This pattern looks to be supportive of increasing PoP chances over our region on Wednesday (20-30%), with better chances on Thursday (30-40%). As for temps, highs each day are expected to range generally in the 80s. Low temps exhibit a bit of a warming trend, starting with lows Monday night ranging in the 50s over inland areas, to the low to mid 60s near the coast. By Wednesday night, temps should rebound into the 60s for most of the region. JEH/88 && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Light onshore flow during the afternoon and light offshore flow overnight will continue today. Winds and seas will then increase this weekend in response to a cold front expected to pass over the marine area tonight into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually ease and become easterly through early next week. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 62 83 54 82 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 85 65 84 60 83 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 83 67 84 63 85 62 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 58 81 49 80 47 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 84 57 77 49 77 49 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 84 56 78 47 77 48 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 87 60 85 53 83 50 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob