972 
FXUS64 KSHV 070517
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A weak and dry frontal boundary will maintain seasonable
conditions through the end of this week. After its arrival, wind 
speeds will remain light and variable overnight tonight to allow 
minimum temperatures to fall into the upper 50s. By late tomorrow
the next area of high pressure will begin to gradually shift 
southward across the Great Plains (reaching the Ark-La-Tex later 
this weekend) to usher in northerly to northeasterly surface flow
at or just below 10 knots areawide. Afternoon maximum 
temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the upper 80s (with 
lower 90s possible in isolated areas). That said, this activity 
will not make much difference to precipitation chances with none 
expected through tomorrow night and beyond. By tomorrow night, 
minimum temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the lower 60s.
/16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Post-frontal conditions will prevail this weekend in the wake of a 
strong cold front that moves through the region late Friday into 
Friday Night. Sfc ridging in the wake of the cold front will be 
centered across Missouri to start the long term with this feature 
gradually shifting south and east into the Tenn Valley by Sunday. 
Should see post-frontal temperatures on Saturday some 8-12 degrees 
cooler than those experienced on Friday. Just a tad warmer for 
Sunday before southerly winds begin returning for Monday as the 
ridge axis pushes even further into the Lower Miss Valley by that 
time. 

This moderation trend in temperatures will continue through at least 
Wednesday but the good news is we should start to see at least 
meager moisture return by this time as well. The gradual low-level 
moisture return will correlate well with southwesterly flow aloft 
developing across the Southern Plains as an upper level trough 
across the Four Corners Region of the country begins to fill and 
lift out into the Southern Plains early next week. This trough 
really flattens out by the middle of next week as it approaches our 
region but at this time it appears that there will be another cold 
front diving down out of the Great Plains and into our region Wed 
Night into Thu of next week. There continues to be good model 
consensus that this change in airmass will help to generate at least 
the possibility of scattered convection late Wed into Thu of next 
week so will continue to advertise this narrative. This will be the 
first rain chances most of our region will have had in over a month 
by the time we get into the middle of next week. 

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

While VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period,
expect rather variable winds across the region with an approaching
cold front.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  61  82  56 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  87  58  80  52 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  88  56  78  51 /   0   0   0   0 
TXK  86  59  77  54 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  84  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  89  61  83  56 /   0   0   0   0 
GGG  88  60  82  55 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  90  63  87  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...44