972 FXUS64 KSHV 070517 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1217 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 A weak and dry frontal boundary will maintain seasonable conditions through the end of this week. After its arrival, wind speeds will remain light and variable overnight tonight to allow minimum temperatures to fall into the upper 50s. By late tomorrow the next area of high pressure will begin to gradually shift southward across the Great Plains (reaching the Ark-La-Tex later this weekend) to usher in northerly to northeasterly surface flow at or just below 10 knots areawide. Afternoon maximum temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the upper 80s (with lower 90s possible in isolated areas). That said, this activity will not make much difference to precipitation chances with none expected through tomorrow night and beyond. By tomorrow night, minimum temperatures will remain slightly cooler in the lower 60s. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Post-frontal conditions will prevail this weekend in the wake of a strong cold front that moves through the region late Friday into Friday Night. Sfc ridging in the wake of the cold front will be centered across Missouri to start the long term with this feature gradually shifting south and east into the Tenn Valley by Sunday. Should see post-frontal temperatures on Saturday some 8-12 degrees cooler than those experienced on Friday. Just a tad warmer for Sunday before southerly winds begin returning for Monday as the ridge axis pushes even further into the Lower Miss Valley by that time. This moderation trend in temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday but the good news is we should start to see at least meager moisture return by this time as well. The gradual low-level moisture return will correlate well with southwesterly flow aloft developing across the Southern Plains as an upper level trough across the Four Corners Region of the country begins to fill and lift out into the Southern Plains early next week. This trough really flattens out by the middle of next week as it approaches our region but at this time it appears that there will be another cold front diving down out of the Great Plains and into our region Wed Night into Thu of next week. There continues to be good model consensus that this change in airmass will help to generate at least the possibility of scattered convection late Wed into Thu of next week so will continue to advertise this narrative. This will be the first rain chances most of our region will have had in over a month by the time we get into the middle of next week. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 While VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period, expect rather variable winds across the region with an approaching cold front. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 61 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 87 58 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 88 56 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 86 59 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 84 55 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 89 61 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 88 60 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 90 63 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...44