889 
FXUS62 KTAE 070511
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
111 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Fair and dry weather will continue through Friday as a broad trough 
remains in place aloft and high pressure holds at the surface. 
Temperatures in the 50s Friday morning will rise into the mid and 
upper 80s by Friday afternoon. The main concerns through this
period will be fire weather. Please see the fire weather section
below for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Main weather highlight through the beginning of the weekend will
be a cold front that passes through the region. While this front
won't bring a much cooler airmass, surface high pressure filling
in behind the front will help to increase the winds on Saturday
afternoon. As outlined in the fire weather section below, despite
slightly cooler temperatures and a slim improvement in relative
humidities, the increased winds will keep fire weather concerns
elevated across the area. High temperatures will be a little
cooler, especially across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle 
where increasing upper level clouds and a slightly cooler airmass 
will keep highs in the low to mid 80s. The mid to upper 80s are
expected across the Big Bend and southern Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Surface high pressure will slowly drift east through the end of
the weekend and into next week as low level flow will remain out
of the northeast and then the east later in the week. Fire weather
concerns appear to remain elevated on Sunday, especially further
west across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle where we'll likely
mix into drier mid-level air pushing in from the west. Dry 
conditions are forecast to continue for much of the upcoming week
with zonal flow prevailing and no significant systems expected in
the upper level flow. The elevated easterly flow will keep things
breezy through the week but thankfully, we'll see low level 
moisture slowly increase which should keep fire weather from going
critical. However, we still urge folks to remain very careful 
with outdoor flames given the dry conditions still in place across
much of the area.

By the end of the week there is the potential for an increase in 
rain chances as a stronger upper level system is able to take 
advantage of increasing low level moisture through the week. 
However, confidence in rain still remains low at this time until 
we see a greater proportion of ensemble members show rainfall. For
now, have left a slight chance of rain in the forecast for 
Thursday and Friday of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022


VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light
northwest winds around 5 knots expected throughout the day. 


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Light winds and seas are anticipated through the end of the week
with light northerly winds expected. Friday night into Saturday a
cold front will move through bringing increasing north and
northeast winds to areas waters with cautionary levels possible.
From Sunday onwards, a steady northeast and easterly flow will
develop with cautionary conditions likely through much of next 
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days as dry 
conditions continue. Humidity values will drop into the 20s and 
lower 30s once again Friday afternoon. Winds will remain light on 
Friday, keeping dispersion values very low, especially across 
Florida.

A weak cold front will cross the area early Saturday. No rain is 
expected with the frontal passage, with a continuation of the dry 
conditions. However, the front will bring an increase in winds, 
which will increase dispersions and keep the fire danger 
elevated, especially into Sunday, as humidity values drop once 
again.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

With no rainfall anticipated for the much of the next 7 days,
there are no hydrology concerns in place at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   85  64  86  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        88  60  85  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        87  59  85  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      87  58  89  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    87  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  82  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs