889 FXUS62 KTAE 070511 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 111 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Fair and dry weather will continue through Friday as a broad trough remains in place aloft and high pressure holds at the surface. Temperatures in the 50s Friday morning will rise into the mid and upper 80s by Friday afternoon. The main concerns through this period will be fire weather. Please see the fire weather section below for more information. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Main weather highlight through the beginning of the weekend will be a cold front that passes through the region. While this front won't bring a much cooler airmass, surface high pressure filling in behind the front will help to increase the winds on Saturday afternoon. As outlined in the fire weather section below, despite slightly cooler temperatures and a slim improvement in relative humidities, the increased winds will keep fire weather concerns elevated across the area. High temperatures will be a little cooler, especially across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle where increasing upper level clouds and a slightly cooler airmass will keep highs in the low to mid 80s. The mid to upper 80s are expected across the Big Bend and southern Georgia. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Surface high pressure will slowly drift east through the end of the weekend and into next week as low level flow will remain out of the northeast and then the east later in the week. Fire weather concerns appear to remain elevated on Sunday, especially further west across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle where we'll likely mix into drier mid-level air pushing in from the west. Dry conditions are forecast to continue for much of the upcoming week with zonal flow prevailing and no significant systems expected in the upper level flow. The elevated easterly flow will keep things breezy through the week but thankfully, we'll see low level moisture slowly increase which should keep fire weather from going critical. However, we still urge folks to remain very careful with outdoor flames given the dry conditions still in place across much of the area. By the end of the week there is the potential for an increase in rain chances as a stronger upper level system is able to take advantage of increasing low level moisture through the week. However, confidence in rain still remains low at this time until we see a greater proportion of ensemble members show rainfall. For now, have left a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light northwest winds around 5 knots expected throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Light winds and seas are anticipated through the end of the week with light northerly winds expected. Friday night into Saturday a cold front will move through bringing increasing north and northeast winds to areas waters with cautionary levels possible. From Sunday onwards, a steady northeast and easterly flow will develop with cautionary conditions likely through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Fire danger will remain elevated over the next several days as dry conditions continue. Humidity values will drop into the 20s and lower 30s once again Friday afternoon. Winds will remain light on Friday, keeping dispersion values very low, especially across Florida. A weak cold front will cross the area early Saturday. No rain is expected with the frontal passage, with a continuation of the dry conditions. However, the front will bring an increase in winds, which will increase dispersions and keep the fire danger elevated, especially into Sunday, as humidity values drop once again. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 With no rainfall anticipated for the much of the next 7 days, there are no hydrology concerns in place at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 60 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 64 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 60 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 59 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 82 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Camp SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Camp HYDROLOGY...Dobbs