119 
FXUS64 KBRO 281624 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Currently, the lowest dewpoints are in the Ranchlands. That drier 
air is still making its way down towards the RGV through the rest of 
today. Ridge will dominate the Central Plains through the Short Term 
period helping us to sustain our rain-free and sunny weather over 
the next couple of days. Highs will be in the lower 90s today and 
tomorrow with lows in the mid 60s. Dewpoint temperatures will 
continue to drop into the mid 50s and lower 60s helping the nights 
feel cool and pleasant.

As Hurricane Ian continues to move towards Florida, the BRO Gulf 
Waters and coastal zones will be impacted. Forecast inundation shows 
water reaching 1 ft this evening at local area beaches and with the 
observed water levels performing higher than the forecast guidance 
yesterday, decided to issue a Coastal Flood Statement for today. A 
Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the barrier island 
starting Wednesday evening and continuing through just before 
midnight tonight. However, this may need to be extended/upgraded to 
an advisory later today. A high risk of rip currents is also 
expected at area beaches today and a Rip Current Statement has been 
issued for the barrier island beginning this morning and continuing 
through sunset this evening. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Mid-level ridge and building surface high pressure across the
lower Texas coast maintains a very pleasant and comfortable long 
term period across Deep South Texas. PWAT values drop below 1 inch
Friday into Monday, and dewpoints generally remain below 70, with
quite a few afternoons dipping below 60. This will keep humidity 
values low through the period. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, 
near normal for late September and early October, persist, with 
much welcomed below normal lows in the 60s finally bringing a 
taste of Fall to the southern border. 

Astronomical tides increase late this week and continue into mid
next week, bringing a somewhat seasonal minor coastal flooding
threat to the lower Texas coast. Swells from Hurricane Ian will
help increase coastal flooding late Thursday into Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

About the only item to discuss is some patchy cumulus forming in a
thin moist layer around 850 mb (5000 feet) this afternoon, and 
continuing from time to time overnight and into Thursday morning. 
Otherwise, some freshening wind from the northeast, enhanced by 
the sea breeze, marching from east to west this afternoon. Sunset 
will see winds quickly lay down with near calm conditions 
overnight for all three terminals...and clear skies amidst a few 
passing cumulus overnight. Light northerly winds start Thursday's 
daylight hours with a continuation of FEW-SCT cumulus in the thin 
moist layer at 850 mb.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
(Today through Thursday)

As Hurricane Ian continues to move towards Florida, wave heights 
are forecast to reach 5 to 7 feet by this afternoon. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for the offshore gulf waters starting 
this afternoon and continuing through Thursday evening due to an 
increase in swell. This may need to be extended in the next 
forecast package.

(Thursday Night through Tuesday) 
Elevated swells from Hurricane Ian will begin to diminish late 
this week, with high pressure and light onshore flow improving 
marine conditions this weekend into next week. Small Craft 
Advisories will likely be ongoing into Thursday night, diminishing
to Small Craft Caution conditions on Friday. Generally favorable 
marine conditions are expected late Saturday through Tuesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  70  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN               89  67  90  64 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN                 91  67  92  66 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  65  92  64 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  85  75 /   0   0   0   0 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  72  87  69 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52-Goldsmith
LONG TERM....58-Reese
AVIATION...52-Goldsmith