119 FXUS64 KBRO 281624 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Currently, the lowest dewpoints are in the Ranchlands. That drier air is still making its way down towards the RGV through the rest of today. Ridge will dominate the Central Plains through the Short Term period helping us to sustain our rain-free and sunny weather over the next couple of days. Highs will be in the lower 90s today and tomorrow with lows in the mid 60s. Dewpoint temperatures will continue to drop into the mid 50s and lower 60s helping the nights feel cool and pleasant. As Hurricane Ian continues to move towards Florida, the BRO Gulf Waters and coastal zones will be impacted. Forecast inundation shows water reaching 1 ft this evening at local area beaches and with the observed water levels performing higher than the forecast guidance yesterday, decided to issue a Coastal Flood Statement for today. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the barrier island starting Wednesday evening and continuing through just before midnight tonight. However, this may need to be extended/upgraded to an advisory later today. A high risk of rip currents is also expected at area beaches today and a Rip Current Statement has been issued for the barrier island beginning this morning and continuing through sunset this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Mid-level ridge and building surface high pressure across the lower Texas coast maintains a very pleasant and comfortable long term period across Deep South Texas. PWAT values drop below 1 inch Friday into Monday, and dewpoints generally remain below 70, with quite a few afternoons dipping below 60. This will keep humidity values low through the period. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, near normal for late September and early October, persist, with much welcomed below normal lows in the 60s finally bringing a taste of Fall to the southern border. Astronomical tides increase late this week and continue into mid next week, bringing a somewhat seasonal minor coastal flooding threat to the lower Texas coast. Swells from Hurricane Ian will help increase coastal flooding late Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 About the only item to discuss is some patchy cumulus forming in a thin moist layer around 850 mb (5000 feet) this afternoon, and continuing from time to time overnight and into Thursday morning. Otherwise, some freshening wind from the northeast, enhanced by the sea breeze, marching from east to west this afternoon. Sunset will see winds quickly lay down with near calm conditions overnight for all three terminals...and clear skies amidst a few passing cumulus overnight. Light northerly winds start Thursday's daylight hours with a continuation of FEW-SCT cumulus in the thin moist layer at 850 mb. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 (Today through Thursday) As Hurricane Ian continues to move towards Florida, wave heights are forecast to reach 5 to 7 feet by this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the offshore gulf waters starting this afternoon and continuing through Thursday evening due to an increase in swell. This may need to be extended in the next forecast package. (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Elevated swells from Hurricane Ian will begin to diminish late this week, with high pressure and light onshore flow improving marine conditions this weekend into next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be ongoing into Thursday night, diminishing to Small Craft Caution conditions on Friday. Generally favorable marine conditions are expected late Saturday through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 70 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 67 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 67 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 65 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 72 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...52-Goldsmith LONG TERM....58-Reese AVIATION...52-Goldsmith