410 
FXUS64 KMAF 162319
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Tranquil weather conditions will be felt all across W TX as ridge
center over Chihuahua coupled with deep mid-upper layer 
subsidence will create an arduous task for any convection to fire 
this PM. A few spots may see a shower/storm over the region with 
the Davis Mtns being the primary area this afternoon, followed by 
the NW Permian Basin where a thin axis of elevated ML-CAPE ~1000 
J/kg will bisect the area. 12z KMAF sounding came in with a 
convective temp around 90F, typically relaying when cumulus 
development would initiate. Already seeing that line of cumulus 
develop over the northern half of Lea extending into the Caprock, 
so the corridor downstream across Gaines/N Andrews/N Dawson 
counties will be the areas of interest, along with N Lea county in
NM. 

Any storms that do develop will result in brief periods of 
rainfall, gusty winds, and ponding on roadways. Convection will 
dissipate after sunset due to loss of diurnal heating. Highs will 
reach the U80s and L-M90s this afternoon areawide, maintaining a 
near seasonal temp trend. Tomorrow will be a touch warmer as 850mb
temps poke a bit higher than today, but chance of precip will be 
next to nil, so a nice start to the weekend. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Nothing has changed in the extended period. All models are showing
an upper level high pressure system building over North Texas and
remaining stationary through next week. Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas will remain under deep east to southeasterly flow,
advecting in air from the Gulf of Mexico that will keep
temperatures near or slightly above normal. A series of upper
troughs will pass north of the high along the U.S./Canada border
sending fronts into the South Plains but it is doubtful they will
make it this far south. Our proximity to the high should keep most
of the area dry. Perhaps a couple of afternoon storms could
develop in the far western CWA though for most of the CWA rain 
chances will be near zero.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds should
remain generally southerly, with intermittent gusts at most
terminals this evening and into the early morning hours. A few
showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up across the region
this afternoon, but are unlikely to impact any terminals. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 65  94  65  92 /  10   0   0   0 
Dryden                   69  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            67  93  68  92 /  10   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           64  85  64  84 /  10   0   0  10 
Hobbs                    65  91  65  89 /  10   0   0   0 
Marfa                    56  87  57  87 /  20   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     69  92  69  91 /  10   0   0   0 
Odessa                   69  91  70  90 /  10   0   0   0 
Wink                     69  94  69  92 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...88