410 FXUS64 KMAF 162319 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Tranquil weather conditions will be felt all across W TX as ridge center over Chihuahua coupled with deep mid-upper layer subsidence will create an arduous task for any convection to fire this PM. A few spots may see a shower/storm over the region with the Davis Mtns being the primary area this afternoon, followed by the NW Permian Basin where a thin axis of elevated ML-CAPE ~1000 J/kg will bisect the area. 12z KMAF sounding came in with a convective temp around 90F, typically relaying when cumulus development would initiate. Already seeing that line of cumulus develop over the northern half of Lea extending into the Caprock, so the corridor downstream across Gaines/N Andrews/N Dawson counties will be the areas of interest, along with N Lea county in NM. Any storms that do develop will result in brief periods of rainfall, gusty winds, and ponding on roadways. Convection will dissipate after sunset due to loss of diurnal heating. Highs will reach the U80s and L-M90s this afternoon areawide, maintaining a near seasonal temp trend. Tomorrow will be a touch warmer as 850mb temps poke a bit higher than today, but chance of precip will be next to nil, so a nice start to the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Nothing has changed in the extended period. All models are showing an upper level high pressure system building over North Texas and remaining stationary through next week. Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will remain under deep east to southeasterly flow, advecting in air from the Gulf of Mexico that will keep temperatures near or slightly above normal. A series of upper troughs will pass north of the high along the U.S./Canada border sending fronts into the South Plains but it is doubtful they will make it this far south. Our proximity to the high should keep most of the area dry. Perhaps a couple of afternoon storms could develop in the far western CWA though for most of the CWA rain chances will be near zero. Hennig && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds should remain generally southerly, with intermittent gusts at most terminals this evening and into the early morning hours. A few showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up across the region this afternoon, but are unlikely to impact any terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 94 65 92 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 69 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 67 93 68 92 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 85 64 84 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 65 91 65 89 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 56 87 57 87 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 92 69 91 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 69 91 70 90 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 69 94 69 92 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...88