660 
FXUS64 KMOB 122057
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
357 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Currently, most 
convective activity remains focused generally along and just north
and south of the highway 84 corridor as the weak surface boundary
pushes further south into the northern portion of the region. 
Expecting any convective development to gradually diminish going 
into early tonight. 

Aloft through Saturday, we continue to remain smooshed between a 
longwave trough centered over the northeastern CONUS, and large 
Tonight, the building ridge over the central CONUS continues to 
gradually nudge the large trough eastward out over the Atlantic with 
ridging nosing further into our area from the northwest. As this 
occurs, winds aloft become a bit more northerly tonight helping to 
push somewhat drier air into the region during this time, especially 
for areas north of the associated weak surface boundary which looks 
to weaken and stall out generally along the highway 84 corridor. 
With this, expecting shower and storm development to generally 
follow a more typical summertime pattern tonight and into Saturday 
with activity beginning in the late overnight and during the early 
morning hours Saturday near the coast, and then gradually moving 
inland with the seabreeze. Additionally, as the weak surface 
boundary lingers, this will help to provide some additional lift for 
development on Saturday. However, as the ridging aloft becomes more 
prominent over the region subsidence increases and PWATs begin to 
drop to around 1.5 inches north of the highway 84 corridor and 1.5-
1.8 south and closer to the coast on Saturday. This will likely keep 
showers and storms more scattered in nature through Saturday with 
focus remaining along and around any surface boundaries. 

As for impacts expected, with an increase in drier layers in the 
middle and upper levels of the troposphere and slight cooling of 
temperatures aloft, higher instability during the day will be 
present with MLCAPE values rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range, and 
DCAPE values rising into the 700-1100J/kg range, both of which occur 
more over the northern half of the forecast area. With this, for any 
storms that do development, there is a chance of some stronger 
storms with the usual potential for damaging winds. Also, can still 
expect ponding of water and potential for localized minor flooding 
to remain an issue for coastal counties where the moisture airmass 
exists. 

Temperatures through the period will gradually creep back up going 
into the weekend as storm coverage decreases. Highs today topped out 
in generally the mid to upper 80s for most areas, by Saturday highs 
in the low 90s begin to return to the area (some upper 80s depending 
on cloud cover) across the area. Lows tonight continue to remain 
generally in the low to mid 70s across the area. Lastly, the risk of 
Rip Currents will decrease to low going into the weekend as onshore 
flow weakens and the tidal range decreases. JEH/88



&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A broad upper
trough will linger along the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic
through the period while an upper ridge remains centered over the
central and southern Plains. This will maintain a north to
northwesterly flow aloft over the local area. An additional 
shortwave is expected to dig within the larger trough as it moves 
over parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night and into 
Monday. This shortwave will help to deepen the upper trough as we 
head into early next week. Down at the surface, a broad ridge of
high pressure will remain in place over the eastern and central
Gulf while a weak boundary meanders across the region and
eventually washes out. A mainly southwest to westerly flow will 
prevail at the surface given the placement of the surface high 
pressure. Moisture will remain plentiful through the period and 
especially at the surface as a result of the low level onshore 
flow. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 1.6 to 
2.0 inches with the greatest moisture content being along the 
coast. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue each day
with the focus being along the sea-breeze and any remnant outflow
boundaries. Coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature 
across southern portions of the area with more isolated activity 
further inland where we could see some drier air in the mid 
levels. A few storms could linger into the evening hours before 
re-developing along the coast in the morning hours. 

High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s on
Sunday, and then the lower to perhaps middle 90s by Monday given
the lower rain chances. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 
70s inland with middle to upper 70s along the coast. /14



&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The general upper level
pattern with a ridge to our west and trough to our east begins to
amplify by mid-week. The local area remains squished between 
those two features aloft on Tuesday, which keeps northwesterly 
winds aloft. An upper low deepens over the Northeast in the middle
to latter half of the week, which will allow winds aloft to turn 
westerly as the local area sits at the bottom of the trough. 
Meanwhile, the western Atlantic surface ridge continues to nudge 
across much of the Gulf through the rest of the work week. Given 
the position of the surface ridge, expect west to occasionally 
southwest winds at the surface, which will usher moisture back 
into the area throughout the week. PWATs increase to 2+ inches at 
times by mid-week. Rain chances are on the rise once again later 
next week as moisture streams into the area ahead of another weak 
boundary attempting to slowly dip across the Deep South. Given the
wet antecedent conditions, increasing PWATs, and potential 
boundary sliding into the area, there is the possibility for more 
flooding concerns as we head deeper into the week. 07/mb



&&

.MARINE...No marine hazards are expected outside of shower and 
storm development through the weekend. Winds remain generally 
southwesterly through tonight, becoming more westerly as we head 
into the weekend. Through early next week, expect winds to remain 
light and generally westerly, at times variable before slightly 
increasing again by mid-week. JEH/88



&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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