660 FXUS64 KMOB 122057 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 357 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Currently, most convective activity remains focused generally along and just north and south of the highway 84 corridor as the weak surface boundary pushes further south into the northern portion of the region. Expecting any convective development to gradually diminish going into early tonight. Aloft through Saturday, we continue to remain smooshed between a longwave trough centered over the northeastern CONUS, and large Tonight, the building ridge over the central CONUS continues to gradually nudge the large trough eastward out over the Atlantic with ridging nosing further into our area from the northwest. As this occurs, winds aloft become a bit more northerly tonight helping to push somewhat drier air into the region during this time, especially for areas north of the associated weak surface boundary which looks to weaken and stall out generally along the highway 84 corridor. With this, expecting shower and storm development to generally follow a more typical summertime pattern tonight and into Saturday with activity beginning in the late overnight and during the early morning hours Saturday near the coast, and then gradually moving inland with the seabreeze. Additionally, as the weak surface boundary lingers, this will help to provide some additional lift for development on Saturday. However, as the ridging aloft becomes more prominent over the region subsidence increases and PWATs begin to drop to around 1.5 inches north of the highway 84 corridor and 1.5- 1.8 south and closer to the coast on Saturday. This will likely keep showers and storms more scattered in nature through Saturday with focus remaining along and around any surface boundaries. As for impacts expected, with an increase in drier layers in the middle and upper levels of the troposphere and slight cooling of temperatures aloft, higher instability during the day will be present with MLCAPE values rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range, and DCAPE values rising into the 700-1100J/kg range, both of which occur more over the northern half of the forecast area. With this, for any storms that do development, there is a chance of some stronger storms with the usual potential for damaging winds. Also, can still expect ponding of water and potential for localized minor flooding to remain an issue for coastal counties where the moisture airmass exists. Temperatures through the period will gradually creep back up going into the weekend as storm coverage decreases. Highs today topped out in generally the mid to upper 80s for most areas, by Saturday highs in the low 90s begin to return to the area (some upper 80s depending on cloud cover) across the area. Lows tonight continue to remain generally in the low to mid 70s across the area. Lastly, the risk of Rip Currents will decrease to low going into the weekend as onshore flow weakens and the tidal range decreases. JEH/88 && .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A broad upper trough will linger along the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic through the period while an upper ridge remains centered over the central and southern Plains. This will maintain a north to northwesterly flow aloft over the local area. An additional shortwave is expected to dig within the larger trough as it moves over parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night and into Monday. This shortwave will help to deepen the upper trough as we head into early next week. Down at the surface, a broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the eastern and central Gulf while a weak boundary meanders across the region and eventually washes out. A mainly southwest to westerly flow will prevail at the surface given the placement of the surface high pressure. Moisture will remain plentiful through the period and especially at the surface as a result of the low level onshore flow. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 1.6 to 2.0 inches with the greatest moisture content being along the coast. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue each day with the focus being along the sea-breeze and any remnant outflow boundaries. Coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature across southern portions of the area with more isolated activity further inland where we could see some drier air in the mid levels. A few storms could linger into the evening hours before re-developing along the coast in the morning hours. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s on Sunday, and then the lower to perhaps middle 90s by Monday given the lower rain chances. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s inland with middle to upper 70s along the coast. /14 && .EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The general upper level pattern with a ridge to our west and trough to our east begins to amplify by mid-week. The local area remains squished between those two features aloft on Tuesday, which keeps northwesterly winds aloft. An upper low deepens over the Northeast in the middle to latter half of the week, which will allow winds aloft to turn westerly as the local area sits at the bottom of the trough. Meanwhile, the western Atlantic surface ridge continues to nudge across much of the Gulf through the rest of the work week. Given the position of the surface ridge, expect west to occasionally southwest winds at the surface, which will usher moisture back into the area throughout the week. PWATs increase to 2+ inches at times by mid-week. Rain chances are on the rise once again later next week as moisture streams into the area ahead of another weak boundary attempting to slowly dip across the Deep South. Given the wet antecedent conditions, increasing PWATs, and potential boundary sliding into the area, there is the possibility for more flooding concerns as we head deeper into the week. 07/mb && .MARINE...No marine hazards are expected outside of shower and storm development through the weekend. Winds remain generally southwesterly through tonight, becoming more westerly as we head into the weekend. Through early next week, expect winds to remain light and generally westerly, at times variable before slightly increasing again by mid-week. JEH/88 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob