427 
FXUS64 KMAF 182250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

VFR next 24 hrs. Cu field will dissipate after 02z near any
terminals with sct cirrus shield remaining. Winds will decay
gradually overnight with increased variability at KPEQ prior to
12z. Winds will become occasionally gusty out of the SE tomorrow
afternoon. Low density concerns are expected tomorrow given very 
hot forecasted temps b/w 100-110F beyond 18z for all of W TX and
SE NM.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

The long-awaited thermometer increase will arrive Tuesday as the 
thickness dome nears the southern High Plains. We're forecasting 
record high temperatures across many locales with highs in the 105-
113 F range at lower elevations and in the mid 90s to near 100 
across the mountains. Given the accumulative heat stress and these 
temperatures, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for all of west 
Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Otherwise look for a continuance 
of dry and clear conditions. Winds generally will be out of the 
southeast at 5-15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through  Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Nearly no change to the long term forecast. After our record heat on 
Tuesday, we will slowly start a "cooling" trend as the upper ridge 
shifts west, centering over Arizona and northernly flow returns to 
the region. Wednesday afternoon will be a degree or two cooler than 
Tuesday with nearly everyone still in the triple digits, and a Heat 
Advisory will likely be needed. Current high temperature record for 
Midland Int'l for July 20th is 104, and with the current forecasted 
high for Wednesday at 105, we may break this record. Models still 
show the potential for thunderstorms out west across the higher 
terrain Wednesday afternoon thanks to a shortwave, although storms 
are unlikely to make it very far east off of the mountains. Gusty 
winds look to be the main concern with these storms as little 
rainfall is expected, doing nothing to improve our current drought 
conditions. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, albeit a few 
degrees cooler, with a slightly better chance for thunderstorms out 
west in the afternoon. 

The ridge will transition over the Mississippi Valley beginning 
Friday, and parts of the Permian Basin will finally return to the 
upper 90s. Friday-Sunday look to be the coolest days of this entire 
forecast package, however, temperatures will still be around 5-7 
degrees above normal. There remains a chance for thunderstorms in 
the higher terrain each afternoon, although those chance decrease 
beyond Friday. Enjoy this weekend while you can, as temperatures 
look to tick back up into the triple digits next week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78 107  79 106 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 74 106  74 105 /   0   0   0  10 
Dryden                   75 106  76 105 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            74 105  75 104 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           72  99  73  97 /   0   0  10  10 
Hobbs                    72 104  73 103 /   0   0   0  10 
Marfa                    61  99  64  99 /   0   0   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport     77 106  77 105 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   77 105  78 104 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     74 108  76 107 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ 
     Tuesday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati 
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis 
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower 
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Chinati 
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster 
     County-Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea 
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy 
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...87