427 FXUS64 KMAF 182250 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 550 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 VFR next 24 hrs. Cu field will dissipate after 02z near any terminals with sct cirrus shield remaining. Winds will decay gradually overnight with increased variability at KPEQ prior to 12z. Winds will become occasionally gusty out of the SE tomorrow afternoon. Low density concerns are expected tomorrow given very hot forecasted temps b/w 100-110F beyond 18z for all of W TX and SE NM. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 The long-awaited thermometer increase will arrive Tuesday as the thickness dome nears the southern High Plains. We're forecasting record high temperatures across many locales with highs in the 105- 113 F range at lower elevations and in the mid 90s to near 100 across the mountains. Given the accumulative heat stress and these temperatures, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for all of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Otherwise look for a continuance of dry and clear conditions. Winds generally will be out of the southeast at 5-15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Nearly no change to the long term forecast. After our record heat on Tuesday, we will slowly start a "cooling" trend as the upper ridge shifts west, centering over Arizona and northernly flow returns to the region. Wednesday afternoon will be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday with nearly everyone still in the triple digits, and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. Current high temperature record for Midland Int'l for July 20th is 104, and with the current forecasted high for Wednesday at 105, we may break this record. Models still show the potential for thunderstorms out west across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon thanks to a shortwave, although storms are unlikely to make it very far east off of the mountains. Gusty winds look to be the main concern with these storms as little rainfall is expected, doing nothing to improve our current drought conditions. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, albeit a few degrees cooler, with a slightly better chance for thunderstorms out west in the afternoon. The ridge will transition over the Mississippi Valley beginning Friday, and parts of the Permian Basin will finally return to the upper 90s. Friday-Sunday look to be the coolest days of this entire forecast package, however, temperatures will still be around 5-7 degrees above normal. There remains a chance for thunderstorms in the higher terrain each afternoon, although those chance decrease beyond Friday. Enjoy this weekend while you can, as temperatures look to tick back up into the triple digits next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 78 107 79 106 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 106 74 105 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 75 106 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 72 99 73 97 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 72 104 73 103 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 61 99 64 99 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 77 106 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 74 108 76 107 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Scurry. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...87