103 
FXUS61 KBTV 090534
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will keep the threat of a few showers through
this evening, but we're expecting a beautiful weekend 
thereafter. High pressure will bring us warm, sunny days and 
cool nights. A warm up will take place Monday and Tuesday, then 
a stronger cold front will increase the likelihood for showers 
and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 133 AM EDT Saturday...Minimal changes were made to the 
ongoing forecast with dry air firmly in place across the North 
Country. Water vapor imagery is supportive of very dry mid/upper
levels streaming across the region with skies clearing which is
being borne out on IR imagery where the last bit of low cloud 
is eroding from the top down. Cooler conditions are forecast for
Saturday with highs only in the mid 70s and afternoon RH 
dipping into the 30-40% range. 

Previous Discussion...Main change was to decrease precipitation
chances across northeastern Vermont where showers have been 
very few and far between; kept mention of a slight chance of a 
showers in case something gets going as the oblique angle of the
setting sun hits cloud elements. Otherwise, dry air is moving 
into the North Country with northerly flow dropping dew points. 
Best chances of fog remain east of the Green Mountains in the 
Connecticut River Valley since the airmass west of the Greens 
will be highly modified by the influx of drier air through the 
lower layers of the atmosphere. 

Previous Discussion...The cold front is slowly sliding 
southward toward forecast area this afternoon, and we're finally
seeing some light returns on radar as a result. The stronger 
and more concentrated showers have been positioned across 
southern Quebec, northern NH and into ME, and some of this 
should just make it into northern VT before we start to lose 
daytime heating. Otherwise, isolated sprinkles or very light 
showers are expected with most locations remaining dry through 
this evening. A drier and cooler airmass will follow the frontal
passage as high pressure settles over the North Country for the
weekend. Both tonight and Saturday night will feature optimal 
radiational cooling as we'll see clear skies and light winds. 
Hence expect lows both nights to be on the cool side, ranging 
from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Some patchy fog will be 
possible, as well. Saturday will feature Chamber of Commerce 
weather with full sunshine. Temperatures will be a little cooler
than normal but still very pleasant, remaining in the 70s in 
most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 304 PM EDT Friday...Another beautiful summer day is on 
tap for Sunday across the North Country with temperatures right 
at or just below seasonal normals. Winds just off the surface 
will begin to back to the west during the morning hours which 
will yield some weak moisture advection and slightly higher 
dewpoints than those observed on Saturday. Nevertheless, another
sunny day with a few fair weather cumulus clouds is expected 
during the day on Sunday with winds from the northwest at less 
than 10 mph with high pressure entrenched across the region. A 
bit of a pattern shift is in store for Monday as the high 
pressure that will be situated across the region this weekend 
will begin to slide offshore ahead of a developing cold front. 
Precipitation chances will remain low again on Monday but will 
begin to steadily climb after sunset as a warm front approaches 
the region from the west/southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Friday...Tuesday is shaping up to be an 
interesting day with all of the ingredients required for 
thunderstorms. Instability in the form of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE 
will be present in the warm sector following the passage of a 
warm front during the morning hours. The greatest instability 
axis appears like it'll set up from Saranac Lake eastward as a 
developing surface low is expected to track near the St. 
Lawrence Valley yielding extra cloud cover and steady rain 
showers in proximity to the surface low. Moisture will be 
streaming in behind the warm front as dewpoints are expected to 
climb into the lower to mid 60s with some models hinting at 
potential upper 60s. Lift will come in the form a cold front 
with upper level diffluence expected to help keep thunderstorm 
activity ongoing. There will be plenty of shear in place, 
potentially upwards of 60 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, but this 
may work against thunderstorm potential is CAPE values are too 
low There is still some questions to how it'll all play out come
Tuesday but it looks like a high probability of thunderstorm 
activity on Tuesday. Could some be strong to severe? It is 
definitely in the realm of possibility but we will be able to 
answer that question a littler better towards the end of this 
weekend. Although the surface cold front will move through the 
region Tuesday evening and overnight, it won't be until late 
Thursday that we see the upper level trough swing through the 
region. This will keep rain showers in the forecast for the 
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Widespread VFR conditions will persist as 
a new airmass moves over the North Country. Best chances for fog
remain east of the Green Mountains in the Connecticut River 
Valley and possibly some fog at MPV 10-12Z as SCT-BKN 060-100 
CIGs drop southward leaving clear skies and decoupled winds. 
Temperatures at MPV will drop below the crossover temperature, 
but fog/mist may be brief since the airmass is modifying from 
the top down overnight. Winds will be light overnight with 
another day of northerly flow 5-10kts after 14Z and some gusts 
around 15kts after 18Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Neiles