103 FXUS61 KBTV 090534 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will keep the threat of a few showers through this evening, but we're expecting a beautiful weekend thereafter. High pressure will bring us warm, sunny days and cool nights. A warm up will take place Monday and Tuesday, then a stronger cold front will increase the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 133 AM EDT Saturday...Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast with dry air firmly in place across the North Country. Water vapor imagery is supportive of very dry mid/upper levels streaming across the region with skies clearing which is being borne out on IR imagery where the last bit of low cloud is eroding from the top down. Cooler conditions are forecast for Saturday with highs only in the mid 70s and afternoon RH dipping into the 30-40% range. Previous Discussion...Main change was to decrease precipitation chances across northeastern Vermont where showers have been very few and far between; kept mention of a slight chance of a showers in case something gets going as the oblique angle of the setting sun hits cloud elements. Otherwise, dry air is moving into the North Country with northerly flow dropping dew points. Best chances of fog remain east of the Green Mountains in the Connecticut River Valley since the airmass west of the Greens will be highly modified by the influx of drier air through the lower layers of the atmosphere. Previous Discussion...The cold front is slowly sliding southward toward forecast area this afternoon, and we're finally seeing some light returns on radar as a result. The stronger and more concentrated showers have been positioned across southern Quebec, northern NH and into ME, and some of this should just make it into northern VT before we start to lose daytime heating. Otherwise, isolated sprinkles or very light showers are expected with most locations remaining dry through this evening. A drier and cooler airmass will follow the frontal passage as high pressure settles over the North Country for the weekend. Both tonight and Saturday night will feature optimal radiational cooling as we'll see clear skies and light winds. Hence expect lows both nights to be on the cool side, ranging from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Some patchy fog will be possible, as well. Saturday will feature Chamber of Commerce weather with full sunshine. Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal but still very pleasant, remaining in the 70s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 304 PM EDT Friday...Another beautiful summer day is on tap for Sunday across the North Country with temperatures right at or just below seasonal normals. Winds just off the surface will begin to back to the west during the morning hours which will yield some weak moisture advection and slightly higher dewpoints than those observed on Saturday. Nevertheless, another sunny day with a few fair weather cumulus clouds is expected during the day on Sunday with winds from the northwest at less than 10 mph with high pressure entrenched across the region. A bit of a pattern shift is in store for Monday as the high pressure that will be situated across the region this weekend will begin to slide offshore ahead of a developing cold front. Precipitation chances will remain low again on Monday but will begin to steadily climb after sunset as a warm front approaches the region from the west/southwest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 304 PM EDT Friday...Tuesday is shaping up to be an interesting day with all of the ingredients required for thunderstorms. Instability in the form of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE will be present in the warm sector following the passage of a warm front during the morning hours. The greatest instability axis appears like it'll set up from Saranac Lake eastward as a developing surface low is expected to track near the St. Lawrence Valley yielding extra cloud cover and steady rain showers in proximity to the surface low. Moisture will be streaming in behind the warm front as dewpoints are expected to climb into the lower to mid 60s with some models hinting at potential upper 60s. Lift will come in the form a cold front with upper level diffluence expected to help keep thunderstorm activity ongoing. There will be plenty of shear in place, potentially upwards of 60 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, but this may work against thunderstorm potential is CAPE values are too low There is still some questions to how it'll all play out come Tuesday but it looks like a high probability of thunderstorm activity on Tuesday. Could some be strong to severe? It is definitely in the realm of possibility but we will be able to answer that question a littler better towards the end of this weekend. Although the surface cold front will move through the region Tuesday evening and overnight, it won't be until late Thursday that we see the upper level trough swing through the region. This will keep rain showers in the forecast for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Widespread VFR conditions will persist as a new airmass moves over the North Country. Best chances for fog remain east of the Green Mountains in the Connecticut River Valley and possibly some fog at MPV 10-12Z as SCT-BKN 060-100 CIGs drop southward leaving clear skies and decoupled winds. Temperatures at MPV will drop below the crossover temperature, but fog/mist may be brief since the airmass is modifying from the top down overnight. Winds will be light overnight with another day of northerly flow 5-10kts after 14Z and some gusts around 15kts after 18Z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings/Neiles SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Neiles