National Weather Service Raw Text Product

260 
FXUS65 KPSR 301822
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1122 AM MST Thu Jun 30 2022

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
There is still a minor risk for gusty outflow winds across lower 
elevations today and tomorrow, though chances for showers and 
thunderstorms will gradually decrease and move east the next few 
days. By Saturday, most areas will see little to no rain chances,
a pattern that will likely hold into next week. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly below normal through the 4th of July 
holiday, then trend up later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A mid-level anti-cyclone is centered near northwest NM early this
morning, with the plume of monsoonal moisture/instability on its 
western periphery covering roughly the eastern 3/4 of Arizona. 
Nocturnal outflows encountering areas of conditional instability 
and possible aided by some rather subtle upper level PVA produced 
spotty convection across western Maricopa County. CAMs had hinted 
at this earlier. Activity is waning this morning as the forcing 
shifts northeast, though a small chance remains for additional 
flare-ups.

For today, southwesterly flows becomes a bit more established 
across the region. The monsoonal moisture plume will likely ebb 
eastward a bit, allowing diurnal convection to focus more into 
eastern Arizona. Enough instability and limited CIN will remain 
over the nearby foothills for some backbuilding off outflows to 
occur; widespread convection across the lower elevations looks 
less likely today though a few isolated bursts of convection are
possible. The main concern will once again be gusty+dusty 
outflows and localized lightning/heavy rain. A similar pattern is 
anticipated Friday, with the convective focus shifting slightly 
further east.

Mid/upper level low off the West Coast is anticipated to become
broader but slightly retrograde while the anti-cyclone over the
Southern Plains expands during this weekend and into early next
week. The result will be a deeper southwest flow that pushes the
monsoonal moisture plume east, possible all the way into New
Mexico. This allows drier air to filter into our CWA, with PWAT
values dropping to below an inch (though latest GEFS members
display a large range in this, with a clear scenario favoring
values even down to 0.5" with another scenario showing values
remaining in the 1-1.5" range). Similarly, boundary layer mixing
ratios fall into the 4-8 g/kg range per ensemble means, generally
too low to support convection. Thus rain chances for most if not
all of the CWA beginning Saturday and lasting into early next 
week drop notably. NBM 24-hr ProbQPF for measurable rain fall to 
around 5-10% for lower elevations of central AZ (10-30% higher 
elevations of AZ, near zero for SE CA and SW AZ) by Saturday and 
remain there into next week.

By mid/late next week, uncertainty in global ensemble data is 
mostly focused on ridging into the PacNW by late in the period. 
Should the low retrograde more and allow the ridge to expand, then
we could expect mountain convection to return to the eastern half
of the state toward the end of next week. Another thing to watch 
will be the potential return of significant heat. Some 
operational/ensemble members are building an expansive Western US 
high with a central height AOA 600 dm. NBM-based probability for 
110+ F high temperatures rise above zero percent Wednesday for 
most lower desert communities and increase to 50-80% by the 
following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1821Z. 

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: 
Clouds from activity yesterday and overnight are gradually pushing
off to the east. Thunderstorm chances in the metro area this
afternoon and evening are notably lower than yesterday, around
10-20%. Most showers and storms will be distant to the NE and SE.
Any isolated vicinity shower or storm will be capable of gusty
outflow winds, with 10-30% probabilities for >30 kts today. 
Lowest cloud bases will be around 10 kft. Westerly wind shifts are
already occurring late this morning and breezes pick up this 
afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kts. Outflows from the distant 
storms may turn winds easterly as early as 3-6Z. Otherwise it may 
not occur until 10-12Z.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Typical diurnal wind tendencies are expected at both terminals
with SE winds at KIPL shifting W late this afternoon with another
round of breezy downsloping winds. Winds will favor the S to SW at
KBLH with afternoon gusts up to 20-25 kts. Few CU and midlevel
clouds will be possible through the day. Otherwise expect mostly
clear skies. Isolated storms may develop over the mountains in
Mexico this afternoon, to the W and SW of KIPL, but should
dissipate quickly after pushing off the mountains and not reach
the terminal. At most an outflow boundary may reach the terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Shower and thunderstorm potential will be shifting into eastern
Arizona the next few days, where it will remain during the weekend
and into early next week. Humidity values will trend down as
temperatures show little day to day change. Southwesterly winds 
will also trend up the next several days, particularly across 
southeast California and southwest Arizona.

&& 

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Iniguez
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez