260 FXUS65 KPSR 301822 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1122 AM MST Thu Jun 30 2022 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... There is still a minor risk for gusty outflow winds across lower elevations today and tomorrow, though chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease and move east the next few days. By Saturday, most areas will see little to no rain chances, a pattern that will likely hold into next week. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through the 4th of July holiday, then trend up later next week. && .DISCUSSION... A mid-level anti-cyclone is centered near northwest NM early this morning, with the plume of monsoonal moisture/instability on its western periphery covering roughly the eastern 3/4 of Arizona. Nocturnal outflows encountering areas of conditional instability and possible aided by some rather subtle upper level PVA produced spotty convection across western Maricopa County. CAMs had hinted at this earlier. Activity is waning this morning as the forcing shifts northeast, though a small chance remains for additional flare-ups. For today, southwesterly flows becomes a bit more established across the region. The monsoonal moisture plume will likely ebb eastward a bit, allowing diurnal convection to focus more into eastern Arizona. Enough instability and limited CIN will remain over the nearby foothills for some backbuilding off outflows to occur; widespread convection across the lower elevations looks less likely today though a few isolated bursts of convection are possible. The main concern will once again be gusty+dusty outflows and localized lightning/heavy rain. A similar pattern is anticipated Friday, with the convective focus shifting slightly further east. Mid/upper level low off the West Coast is anticipated to become broader but slightly retrograde while the anti-cyclone over the Southern Plains expands during this weekend and into early next week. The result will be a deeper southwest flow that pushes the monsoonal moisture plume east, possible all the way into New Mexico. This allows drier air to filter into our CWA, with PWAT values dropping to below an inch (though latest GEFS members display a large range in this, with a clear scenario favoring values even down to 0.5" with another scenario showing values remaining in the 1-1.5" range). Similarly, boundary layer mixing ratios fall into the 4-8 g/kg range per ensemble means, generally too low to support convection. Thus rain chances for most if not all of the CWA beginning Saturday and lasting into early next week drop notably. NBM 24-hr ProbQPF for measurable rain fall to around 5-10% for lower elevations of central AZ (10-30% higher elevations of AZ, near zero for SE CA and SW AZ) by Saturday and remain there into next week. By mid/late next week, uncertainty in global ensemble data is mostly focused on ridging into the PacNW by late in the period. Should the low retrograde more and allow the ridge to expand, then we could expect mountain convection to return to the eastern half of the state toward the end of next week. Another thing to watch will be the potential return of significant heat. Some operational/ensemble members are building an expansive Western US high with a central height AOA 600 dm. NBM-based probability for 110+ F high temperatures rise above zero percent Wednesday for most lower desert communities and increase to 50-80% by the following weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1821Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Clouds from activity yesterday and overnight are gradually pushing off to the east. Thunderstorm chances in the metro area this afternoon and evening are notably lower than yesterday, around 10-20%. Most showers and storms will be distant to the NE and SE. Any isolated vicinity shower or storm will be capable of gusty outflow winds, with 10-30% probabilities for >30 kts today. Lowest cloud bases will be around 10 kft. Westerly wind shifts are already occurring late this morning and breezes pick up this afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kts. Outflows from the distant storms may turn winds easterly as early as 3-6Z. Otherwise it may not occur until 10-12Z. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Typical diurnal wind tendencies are expected at both terminals with SE winds at KIPL shifting W late this afternoon with another round of breezy downsloping winds. Winds will favor the S to SW at KBLH with afternoon gusts up to 20-25 kts. Few CU and midlevel clouds will be possible through the day. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies. Isolated storms may develop over the mountains in Mexico this afternoon, to the W and SW of KIPL, but should dissipate quickly after pushing off the mountains and not reach the terminal. At most an outflow boundary may reach the terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Shower and thunderstorm potential will be shifting into eastern Arizona the next few days, where it will remain during the weekend and into early next week. Humidity values will trend down as temperatures show little day to day change. Southwesterly winds will also trend up the next several days, particularly across southeast California and southwest Arizona. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Iniguez AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez