889 
FXUS62 KJAX 010045
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
845 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

.UPDATE...

Showers and storms have ended across the area this evening. Drier
air was beginning to wrap into the area from the northeast, and
this will continue overnight and through the day on Wednesday. Dry
conditions are expected overnight. Areas of fog are expected
across interior southeast Georgia and along the I-10 corridor in
northeast Florida near daybreak on Wednesday. Overnight lows will
be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and the low 70s
towards the beaches. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [728 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A coastal trough offshore this morning has progressed inland, 
sparking some mid and late morning showers. The Atlantic sea 
breeze has been reinforced by an easterly flow today and has 
already pushed well inland, nearing I-75 as of 3 pm. Convergent 
flow offshore will likely send another round of widely scattered 
showers and isolated storm into the coastal areas through the rest
of the afternoon. Meanwhile, the stronger forcing along the 
Atlantic sea breeze/outflow will eventually collide with a pinned 
GOMEX sea breeze later this afternoon, perpetuating the potential 
for strong convection into the early evening along and west of 
I-75.
 
Despite some dry air aloft, sufficient instability will support a
few strong storms this afternoon with the primary hazard being 
strong downburst winds (40-60 mph). Secondary hazards will be 
small hail and localized flooding. With a stronger flow and storm 
motion today, flooding concerns will mainly be in areas that 
received heavy rain yesterday and/or the day before. Diurnal 
thunderstorms will wane this evening with a few lingering showers 
in the lower Suwannee Valley through 9-10p before activity 
dissipates entirely. 

Patchy fog will be possible at inland locations, generally west 
of I-95, Wednesday morning. Some areas that receive sufficient 
rain may see locally dense fog development by sunrise Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Limited convection expected through Thursday as a "Rex Block" 
pattern of sorts sets up and a advects a drier airmass advects
into the area on an enhancing northeasterly flow. The drier air 
should limit convection across southeast GA Wednesday. That said,
there will be a chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two across 
northeast FL as moisture pools ahead of the incoming drier air. 
Showers may kickoff by mid morning along the northeast FL coast as
another weak coastal trough develops to the southeast and a 
convergent band of showers advects inland. The Atlantic sea 
breeze will be favored again Wednesday and it may support a few 
isolated storms south of I-10 Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
Similar set up is expected Thursday with thunderstorm potential 
favoring north-central FL during the early evening as sea breezes
merge along or just east of I-75. Temperatures will warm from 
Wednesday to Thursday as flow veers south-southwesterly through 
the day Thursday ahead of an approaching front from the 
northwest.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

A weakening front will slow and eventually stall across the area 
on Friday and be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms 
Friday through Saturday. Meanwhile out in the Gulf of Mexico, 
medium-range guidance has been consistently resolving a weak area 
of low pressure which has a high chance (70%) of becoming a 
tropical disturbance around Thursday. Thereafter, the system is 
progged to move northeastward toward south Florida, crossing the 
peninsula Saturday into Sunday. 

Confidence remains fairly low on track of that system and with 
any potential impacts to the local area at this point in time. If 
the system takes a more northern track (crossing central FL) local
impacts will likely be with the associated rainfall, gusty winds 
at the coast, and rip currents; otherwise, if it stays on a 
southerly track, impacts will be minimal to nil. 

With the amount of uncertainty in the potential tropical 
disturbance, the forecast confidence beyond Sunday is low and 
generally favors a summery, sea breeze pattern with diurnal 
thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will likely fluctuate with 
cloud cover but generally the mid/upper 80s will continue at the 
coast with upper 80s to low 90s inland during the medium-range 
period.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

Easterly winds will diminish and become light and variable
overnight. Drier air will move into the area on Wednesday, and a
few showers/storms are possible near KGNV. Swamp fog is possible
at KVQQ, and light patchy fog is possible across the interior.
East northeast winds around 10 knots will prevail on Wednesday.


.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue through Wednesday with breezy 
afternoon conditions over the nearshore waters. A weakening cold 
front will approach from the northwest Thursday and slow and 
eventually stall across the area Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure 
will organize near the Yucatan peninsula by Thursday, with this 
potential tropical disturbance then expected to move northeast 
towards the Florida Keys and south Florida by late Saturday and 
continue northeastward into the Atlantic Sunday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Wednesday, decreasing to a 
low-moderate risk Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  66  92  67  93  69 /   0  10   0  10  10 
SSI  73  86  73  88  74 /   0   0   0  10   0 
JAX  69  89  69  91  71 /   0  10   0  10   0 
SGJ  71  85  71  88  71 /  20  20  10  10  10 
GNV  67  90  67  91  68 /  10  30   0  20   0 
OCF  68  89  68  91  69 /  10  40  10  30  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&