889 FXUS62 KJAX 010045 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 845 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 .UPDATE... Showers and storms have ended across the area this evening. Drier air was beginning to wrap into the area from the northeast, and this will continue overnight and through the day on Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected overnight. Areas of fog are expected across interior southeast Georgia and along the I-10 corridor in northeast Florida near daybreak on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and the low 70s towards the beaches. && .PREV DISCUSSION [728 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A coastal trough offshore this morning has progressed inland, sparking some mid and late morning showers. The Atlantic sea breeze has been reinforced by an easterly flow today and has already pushed well inland, nearing I-75 as of 3 pm. Convergent flow offshore will likely send another round of widely scattered showers and isolated storm into the coastal areas through the rest of the afternoon. Meanwhile, the stronger forcing along the Atlantic sea breeze/outflow will eventually collide with a pinned GOMEX sea breeze later this afternoon, perpetuating the potential for strong convection into the early evening along and west of I-75. Despite some dry air aloft, sufficient instability will support a few strong storms this afternoon with the primary hazard being strong downburst winds (40-60 mph). Secondary hazards will be small hail and localized flooding. With a stronger flow and storm motion today, flooding concerns will mainly be in areas that received heavy rain yesterday and/or the day before. Diurnal thunderstorms will wane this evening with a few lingering showers in the lower Suwannee Valley through 9-10p before activity dissipates entirely. Patchy fog will be possible at inland locations, generally west of I-95, Wednesday morning. Some areas that receive sufficient rain may see locally dense fog development by sunrise Wednesday. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Limited convection expected through Thursday as a "Rex Block" pattern of sorts sets up and a advects a drier airmass advects into the area on an enhancing northeasterly flow. The drier air should limit convection across southeast GA Wednesday. That said, there will be a chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two across northeast FL as moisture pools ahead of the incoming drier air. Showers may kickoff by mid morning along the northeast FL coast as another weak coastal trough develops to the southeast and a convergent band of showers advects inland. The Atlantic sea breeze will be favored again Wednesday and it may support a few isolated storms south of I-10 Wednesday afternoon and evening. Similar set up is expected Thursday with thunderstorm potential favoring north-central FL during the early evening as sea breezes merge along or just east of I-75. Temperatures will warm from Wednesday to Thursday as flow veers south-southwesterly through the day Thursday ahead of an approaching front from the northwest. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... A weakening front will slow and eventually stall across the area on Friday and be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. Meanwhile out in the Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance has been consistently resolving a weak area of low pressure which has a high chance (70%) of becoming a tropical disturbance around Thursday. Thereafter, the system is progged to move northeastward toward south Florida, crossing the peninsula Saturday into Sunday. Confidence remains fairly low on track of that system and with any potential impacts to the local area at this point in time. If the system takes a more northern track (crossing central FL) local impacts will likely be with the associated rainfall, gusty winds at the coast, and rip currents; otherwise, if it stays on a southerly track, impacts will be minimal to nil. With the amount of uncertainty in the potential tropical disturbance, the forecast confidence beyond Sunday is low and generally favors a summery, sea breeze pattern with diurnal thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will likely fluctuate with cloud cover but generally the mid/upper 80s will continue at the coast with upper 80s to low 90s inland during the medium-range period. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Thursday] Easterly winds will diminish and become light and variable overnight. Drier air will move into the area on Wednesday, and a few showers/storms are possible near KGNV. Swamp fog is possible at KVQQ, and light patchy fog is possible across the interior. East northeast winds around 10 knots will prevail on Wednesday. .MARINE... Onshore flow will continue through Wednesday with breezy afternoon conditions over the nearshore waters. A weakening cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday and slow and eventually stall across the area Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will organize near the Yucatan peninsula by Thursday, with this potential tropical disturbance then expected to move northeast towards the Florida Keys and south Florida by late Saturday and continue northeastward into the Atlantic Sunday. Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Wednesday, decreasing to a low-moderate risk Thursday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 92 67 93 69 / 0 10 0 10 10 SSI 73 86 73 88 74 / 0 0 0 10 0 JAX 69 89 69 91 71 / 0 10 0 10 0 SGJ 71 85 71 88 71 / 20 20 10 10 10 GNV 67 90 67 91 68 / 10 30 0 20 0 OCF 68 89 68 91 69 / 10 40 10 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&