982 
FXUS62 KJAX 250536
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
136 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

VFR expected to prevail with ceilings generally above 12 kft.
However, there are low to medium chances of MVFR ceilings along 
the coastal TAFs this morning through about 16Z, with an outside 
chance of an IFR ceiling around 10Z-13Z for a brief time as well.
At SSI, also an isolated shower possible centered near 12Z-15Z, 
but for rest of the TAFs shower or tstms chances are too small to 
include anything at this time. Winds will be light southeast 
through 13Z, then increasing to about 10-16G20kt and gusty rest of
the day, then diminishing tonight after about 00Z-03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [950 PM EDT]...


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Wed & Wed night...Much drier conditions are expected as the mean 
layer 1000-500 mb ridge center east of the north FL peninsula 
today lifts northward into Wednesday with drier air across south 
FL funneling northward across the local area on the WSW side of 
this mean layer ridge. The drier air combined with subsidence 
under the ridge will limit rain chances across the local area as 
the dominant east coast sea breeze presses inland into the late 
afternoon. Continued with only about a 20% chance of late 
afternoon and early evening showers or a storm for locations near 
and west of I-75 where the sea breezes will converge on the 
periphery of the mean ridge. Precip will tapper off quickly in the
evening as it drifts to the NNW. Max temps Wed will warm to near 
90 inland under easterly flow to the mid 80s coast where the east 
coast sea breeze will press inland by midday with gusts near 25 
mph into the early evening. SE flow will continue at the coast Wed
night where mild low temps will fall into the low 70s while 
inland temps will cool into the upper 60s under partly to mostly 
cloudy skies as a mid level impulse approaches from the west 
through daybreak Thu which could trigger a few early morning 
coastal showers. 

Thu & Thu night...Deep layer moisture increases and subsidence 
weakens as the mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge lifts farther ENE as a
long wave trough and developing frontal system moves east across 
the MS River Valley region. Increasing southerly steering flow of 
15-20 kts will enable both the west and east coast sea breezes to 
develop and press inland into the afternoon where high temps will 
peak out in the low 90s. Weak embedded short wave troughs and 
lobes of PVA will traverse the local area as the long wave trough 
approaches through Thu night. This increase in upper level forcing
and deeper moisture combined with diurnal instability and sea 
breeze convergence favor an increase in rain chances, especially 
for our inland zones Thu aftn were sea breezes converge, with 
deeper convection pressing back toward the Atlantic coast Thu 
evening as steering flow transitions to SSW. Precip potential will
continue Thu night, especially for inland SE and the Suwannee 
River Valley of NE FL as a pre-frontal line of showers and storms 
approaches from SW GA through daybreak Friday. Muggy overnight low
temps will generally range in the upper 60s to low 70s Thu night.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Fri & Fri night...A pre-frontal line of thunderstorms will move 
across the local area through Friday as the parent upper level low
over the TN River Valley slowly progresses to the ENE into Friday
night. A few strong storms will be possible Friday across SE GA 
and the Suwannee River Valley from morning to early afternoon 
where upper level dynamics and low level SSW flow from the GOMEX 
will nose low level instability inland and convective ingredients 
phase. At this time, the greatest t'storm hazard will be gusty 
winds and possibly small hail, with a decreasing strong to severe 
storm threat into the late afternoon and early evening across NE 
FL. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will trend below 
normal in the 80s. A dry slot will rotate around the southern side
of the upper level and tapper end precip north to south across 
the local area Friday night as the surface front edges south 
across SE GA and begins to stall across north FL into Saturday. 

Sat...Dry conditions will prevail across SE GA and the I-10 
corridor of NE FL with a low chance of mainly showers (isolated 
t'storm possible) across our southern FL zones (roughly SGJ to GNV
southward) just south of the surface front as forcing from the 
upper level trough approaches from the west. Rainfall is expected 
to decrease across these zones into Sat evening as precipitable 
water content falls below 1 inch (below climo). High temperatures 
will trend near to below normal in the low/mid 80s. Dry conditions
are expected Saturday night with near to below normal lows in the
low/mid 60s inland to near 70 coast under a weak pressure pattern
as the surface trough become diffuse across north Florida. 

Sun through Tue...Dry conditions continue for most areas Sunday
and Monday, less a low chance of a sea breeze shower across N FL
in the afternoon near the diffuse frontal zone with precipitable
water content less than 1 inch (climo PWAT increases to 1.4 inches
during the first week of June). Rain chances increase slightly
Tuesday as the mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge builds WNW of the
region and brings ENE steering flow over the local area as
precipitable water content increases to 1.2 to 1.3 inches, but
still below normal under general subsidence. Temperatures will
moderate through early next week back to near normal to just above
normal with highs in the low 90s well inland under prevailing ENE
steering flow with coastal areas remaining more mild in the mid
80s. Low temperatures will range near normal in the mid 60s to
near 70 under onshore flow at the coast.


.MARINE...

Atlantic high pressure will remain positioned off the southeastern
seaboard through Wednesday night, resulting in a prevailing 
southeasterly wind flow. Wind speeds may occasionally approach
Caution levels through Wednesday night, but speeds will generally
remain around 15 knots, with seas of 2-4 feet both near shore and
offshore. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary positioned across
the Carolinas will lift northward as a warm front on Thursday as 
a cold front pushes into the southeastern states by Thursday 
evening, resulting in strengthening southeasterly winds. Speeds
should reach Caution levels both near shore and offshore on
Thursday afternoon and evening, and seas will build to 3-5 feet
through Friday. This frontal boundary will then slow its forward 
progress as it approaches our local waters on Friday, bringing 
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, speeds should decrease below Caution 
levels by Friday afternoon. This front will weaken over our 
coastal waters during the Memorial Day weekend, resulting in 
decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a weak 
pressure pattern prevails. Seas of 2-3 feet are expected both near
shore and offshore during the Holiday weekend.

Rip Currents: Persistent, breezy onshore winds will keep a
moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches through at
least Thursday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Southeasterly surface and transport winds will become breezy by
the mid to late morning hours on Wednesday, resulting in high
daytime dispersion values developing for inland locations west of
the U.S. Highway 301 corridor during the afternoon hours. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall to around 40 percent for
locations well inland on Wednesday afternoon. Transport winds will
shift to southerly by Thursday morning, with breezy conditions
continuing, resulting in marginally high daytime dispersion values
for locations along and west of U.S. Highway 301. Chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms will increase area-wide from
late Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  89  69  89  69  83 /  10  10  40  60  80 
SSI  86  75  84  74  83 /  20   0  20  30  80 
JAX  88  72  89  72  88 /  10   0  20  20  80 
SGJ  86  73  87  72  86 /  10   0  20  20  80 
GNV  90  69  91  70  85 /  10  10  20  30  80 
OCF  91  70  91  71  86 /  20  10  20  30  80 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&