982 FXUS62 KJAX 250536 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 136 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Thursday] VFR expected to prevail with ceilings generally above 12 kft. However, there are low to medium chances of MVFR ceilings along the coastal TAFs this morning through about 16Z, with an outside chance of an IFR ceiling around 10Z-13Z for a brief time as well. At SSI, also an isolated shower possible centered near 12Z-15Z, but for rest of the TAFs shower or tstms chances are too small to include anything at this time. Winds will be light southeast through 13Z, then increasing to about 10-16G20kt and gusty rest of the day, then diminishing tonight after about 00Z-03Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION [950 PM EDT]... .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Wed & Wed night...Much drier conditions are expected as the mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge center east of the north FL peninsula today lifts northward into Wednesday with drier air across south FL funneling northward across the local area on the WSW side of this mean layer ridge. The drier air combined with subsidence under the ridge will limit rain chances across the local area as the dominant east coast sea breeze presses inland into the late afternoon. Continued with only about a 20% chance of late afternoon and early evening showers or a storm for locations near and west of I-75 where the sea breezes will converge on the periphery of the mean ridge. Precip will tapper off quickly in the evening as it drifts to the NNW. Max temps Wed will warm to near 90 inland under easterly flow to the mid 80s coast where the east coast sea breeze will press inland by midday with gusts near 25 mph into the early evening. SE flow will continue at the coast Wed night where mild low temps will fall into the low 70s while inland temps will cool into the upper 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies as a mid level impulse approaches from the west through daybreak Thu which could trigger a few early morning coastal showers. Thu & Thu night...Deep layer moisture increases and subsidence weakens as the mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge lifts farther ENE as a long wave trough and developing frontal system moves east across the MS River Valley region. Increasing southerly steering flow of 15-20 kts will enable both the west and east coast sea breezes to develop and press inland into the afternoon where high temps will peak out in the low 90s. Weak embedded short wave troughs and lobes of PVA will traverse the local area as the long wave trough approaches through Thu night. This increase in upper level forcing and deeper moisture combined with diurnal instability and sea breeze convergence favor an increase in rain chances, especially for our inland zones Thu aftn were sea breezes converge, with deeper convection pressing back toward the Atlantic coast Thu evening as steering flow transitions to SSW. Precip potential will continue Thu night, especially for inland SE and the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL as a pre-frontal line of showers and storms approaches from SW GA through daybreak Friday. Muggy overnight low temps will generally range in the upper 60s to low 70s Thu night. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... Fri & Fri night...A pre-frontal line of thunderstorms will move across the local area through Friday as the parent upper level low over the TN River Valley slowly progresses to the ENE into Friday night. A few strong storms will be possible Friday across SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley from morning to early afternoon where upper level dynamics and low level SSW flow from the GOMEX will nose low level instability inland and convective ingredients phase. At this time, the greatest t'storm hazard will be gusty winds and possibly small hail, with a decreasing strong to severe storm threat into the late afternoon and early evening across NE FL. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will trend below normal in the 80s. A dry slot will rotate around the southern side of the upper level and tapper end precip north to south across the local area Friday night as the surface front edges south across SE GA and begins to stall across north FL into Saturday. Sat...Dry conditions will prevail across SE GA and the I-10 corridor of NE FL with a low chance of mainly showers (isolated t'storm possible) across our southern FL zones (roughly SGJ to GNV southward) just south of the surface front as forcing from the upper level trough approaches from the west. Rainfall is expected to decrease across these zones into Sat evening as precipitable water content falls below 1 inch (below climo). High temperatures will trend near to below normal in the low/mid 80s. Dry conditions are expected Saturday night with near to below normal lows in the low/mid 60s inland to near 70 coast under a weak pressure pattern as the surface trough become diffuse across north Florida. Sun through Tue...Dry conditions continue for most areas Sunday and Monday, less a low chance of a sea breeze shower across N FL in the afternoon near the diffuse frontal zone with precipitable water content less than 1 inch (climo PWAT increases to 1.4 inches during the first week of June). Rain chances increase slightly Tuesday as the mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge builds WNW of the region and brings ENE steering flow over the local area as precipitable water content increases to 1.2 to 1.3 inches, but still below normal under general subsidence. Temperatures will moderate through early next week back to near normal to just above normal with highs in the low 90s well inland under prevailing ENE steering flow with coastal areas remaining more mild in the mid 80s. Low temperatures will range near normal in the mid 60s to near 70 under onshore flow at the coast. .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure will remain positioned off the southeastern seaboard through Wednesday night, resulting in a prevailing southeasterly wind flow. Wind speeds may occasionally approach Caution levels through Wednesday night, but speeds will generally remain around 15 knots, with seas of 2-4 feet both near shore and offshore. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary positioned across the Carolinas will lift northward as a warm front on Thursday as a cold front pushes into the southeastern states by Thursday evening, resulting in strengthening southeasterly winds. Speeds should reach Caution levels both near shore and offshore on Thursday afternoon and evening, and seas will build to 3-5 feet through Friday. This frontal boundary will then slow its forward progress as it approaches our local waters on Friday, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorm activity, speeds should decrease below Caution levels by Friday afternoon. This front will weaken over our coastal waters during the Memorial Day weekend, resulting in decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Seas of 2-3 feet are expected both near shore and offshore during the Holiday weekend. Rip Currents: Persistent, breezy onshore winds will keep a moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches through at least Thursday. .FIRE WEATHER... Southeasterly surface and transport winds will become breezy by the mid to late morning hours on Wednesday, resulting in high daytime dispersion values developing for inland locations west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor during the afternoon hours. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 40 percent for locations well inland on Wednesday afternoon. Transport winds will shift to southerly by Thursday morning, with breezy conditions continuing, resulting in marginally high daytime dispersion values for locations along and west of U.S. Highway 301. Chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms will increase area-wide from late Thursday night through Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 69 89 69 83 / 10 10 40 60 80 SSI 86 75 84 74 83 / 20 0 20 30 80 JAX 88 72 89 72 88 / 10 0 20 20 80 SGJ 86 73 87 72 86 / 10 0 20 20 80 GNV 90 69 91 70 85 / 10 10 20 30 80 OCF 91 70 91 71 86 / 20 10 20 30 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&