632 
FXUS64 KMOB 222058
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...An interesting and active 
pattern is currently over the region which includes an area of 
convection over the central Gulf which appears to have some 
subtropical characteristics.  Looking at the larger scale, a rather 
broad upper trof stretching from the western states to the Great 
Lakes region evolves into an amplifying upper trof over the central 
states by Monday.  With an upper ridge over the far western Atlantic 
into the Bahamas, this pattern maintains a persistent deep layer 
southwesterly flow across the region within which a series of 
shortwaves progress across the area.  The most prominent of these 
shortwaves is a broad shortwave trof which currently extends from 
Louisiana into the central Gulf where the area of active convection 
is concentrated.  Within the larger scale southwesterly flow, this 
shortwave trof feature slowly progresses to over the north central 
Gulf and Alabama/Mississippi through Monday.  Adding to this active 
pattern is a frontal boundary currently extending from Louisiana to 
across central Mississippi into eastern Tennessee.  It's not clear 
if this boundary drifts eastward into the area through Monday, or 
rather if a modest surface reflection trof associated with the 
shortwave trof shifts into the area, but regardless this will serve 
as a focus for convection.  Abundant deep layer moisture remains 
over the area with precipitable water values of 1.6-1.9 today 
increasing to 1.7-2.0 inches by Monday, with the relatively lower 
deep layer moisture content tending to be over the eastern portions 
of the area.  The series of shortwaves moving across the area along 
with the modest shortwave trof within this environment will result 
in likely to categorical pops through much of the period, except 
for periodic less coverage due to timing of shortwave features. 
MLCAPE values today and Monday tend to range from 500-1250 J/kg. 
0-3 km bulk shear values of 30-40 knots are noted over the eastern
half of the area through the period, sufficient for bowing 
structures in convection. Precipitation loading with be the main 
initiating mechanism for the stronger convection, and there is the
potential for some severe storms to develop especially over the 
eastern portion of the area where stronger shear values are 
indicated. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of 
severe storms over the entire area today. Flooding concerns are 
possible as well given anticipated high coverage of convection as 
well as ample deep layer moisture. The Weather Prediction Center 
has a slight risk of flash flooding over nearly the entire area 
through the period. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well 
inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Monday will be 
moderated by high coverage of precipitation and cloud cover and 
range from around 80 inland to the lower 80s near the coast. A 
high risk of rip currents continues through the period. /29


&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Thursday night/...Through the 
Short Term, an upper ridge stretches north along the East Coast. 
This ridge will help to deflect northeast an upper level shortwave 
that moves across the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the 
Southeast/Tennessee River Valley Monday night through Tuesday. 
Another deep upper trough moves east over the Plains, approaching 
the Mississippi River Wednesday night. Moisture levels remain high
through the Short Term (with precipitable h20 values in the 
1.5"-1.7" range, higher at times) as a low level ridge stretching 
west along the northern Gulf coast continues to move Gulf moisture
inland. A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday 
as the first, upper level shortwave trough passes. With the trough
passing to the northwest of the forecast area, highest PoPs are 
expected to be northwest of I-65. As the deep upper trough 
approaches, showers and thunderstorms are expected off and on from
early Wednesday into Thursday night before a cold front moves 
east across the forecast area into Thursday night. Coverage with 
this second round is expected to be area wide, and with the 
greater areal and temporal coverage, when combined with the moist 
soils from the previous days, water issues may be a problem. This 
will be monitored for any possible watch.

With the wet period over the forecast area and nearby, a tighter 
than normal diurnal temperatures range is expected. High 
temperatures will see the greatest effect, with around to below 
seasonal norms expected most of the period. High temperatures 
Tuesday through Thursday will generally top out in the around 80 to 
mid 80s most areas, with some upper 80s for those few areas that see 
a bit more sun. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s inland, 
around 70 along the coast are expected Monday night through 
Wednesday night. With the cold front ushering in a cooler and 
definitely drier airmass, clearing skies will allow for better 
radiational cooling Thursday night, with temperatures dropping into 
the mid 50s to low 60s, upper 60s along the coast.
/16


&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Sunday/...The upper level trough that has 
moved over the Southeast stalls and weakens as the axis moves east 
of the forecast area. Southerly flow returns to the Southeast by 
Sunday as the low level ridge over the northern Golf coast rebuilds. 
With a dry airmass over the forecast area and near by, most of the 
extended is expected to be dry. The exception is a small possibility 
over the Western Florida Panhandle Sunday in an area of better low 
level flow. High temperatures rebound to above seasonal norms by the 
coming weekend.
/16

&&

.MARINE...A moderate to occasionally stronger onshore flow 
prevails through Wednesday.  Will have small craft exercise caution 
headlines for much of the area through Monday and expect these 
will be necessary again Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  A 
moderate southwest flow follows for Thursday then switches northerly 
late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area. The 
coverage of showers and storms is expected to the highest through 
Monday and also Wednesday through Thursday. /29


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  82  68  85  72  83  69  84 /  80  90  50  50  30  90  70  70 
Pensacola   72  83  71  84  74  83  70  84 /  70  80  40  40  30  70  70  80 
Destin      73  82  73  83  75  84  73  82 /  60  80  30  30  30  60  60  80 
Evergreen   66  80  65  85  68  84  67  81 /  70  80  40  40  20  70  60  80 
Waynesboro  66  80  64  85  70  81  64  80 /  70  80  40  60  20  90  70  60 
Camden      66  79  64  86  69  83  65  81 /  70  80  40  60  20  80  70  70 
Crestview   69  82  67  86  69  85  67  82 /  60  80  40  40  20  70  60  80 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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