632 FXUS64 KMOB 222058 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 358 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...An interesting and active pattern is currently over the region which includes an area of convection over the central Gulf which appears to have some subtropical characteristics. Looking at the larger scale, a rather broad upper trof stretching from the western states to the Great Lakes region evolves into an amplifying upper trof over the central states by Monday. With an upper ridge over the far western Atlantic into the Bahamas, this pattern maintains a persistent deep layer southwesterly flow across the region within which a series of shortwaves progress across the area. The most prominent of these shortwaves is a broad shortwave trof which currently extends from Louisiana into the central Gulf where the area of active convection is concentrated. Within the larger scale southwesterly flow, this shortwave trof feature slowly progresses to over the north central Gulf and Alabama/Mississippi through Monday. Adding to this active pattern is a frontal boundary currently extending from Louisiana to across central Mississippi into eastern Tennessee. It's not clear if this boundary drifts eastward into the area through Monday, or rather if a modest surface reflection trof associated with the shortwave trof shifts into the area, but regardless this will serve as a focus for convection. Abundant deep layer moisture remains over the area with precipitable water values of 1.6-1.9 today increasing to 1.7-2.0 inches by Monday, with the relatively lower deep layer moisture content tending to be over the eastern portions of the area. The series of shortwaves moving across the area along with the modest shortwave trof within this environment will result in likely to categorical pops through much of the period, except for periodic less coverage due to timing of shortwave features. MLCAPE values today and Monday tend to range from 500-1250 J/kg. 0-3 km bulk shear values of 30-40 knots are noted over the eastern half of the area through the period, sufficient for bowing structures in convection. Precipitation loading with be the main initiating mechanism for the stronger convection, and there is the potential for some severe storms to develop especially over the eastern portion of the area where stronger shear values are indicated. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms over the entire area today. Flooding concerns are possible as well given anticipated high coverage of convection as well as ample deep layer moisture. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk of flash flooding over nearly the entire area through the period. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Monday will be moderated by high coverage of precipitation and cloud cover and range from around 80 inland to the lower 80s near the coast. A high risk of rip currents continues through the period. /29 && .SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Thursday night/...Through the Short Term, an upper ridge stretches north along the East Coast. This ridge will help to deflect northeast an upper level shortwave that moves across the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley Monday night through Tuesday. Another deep upper trough moves east over the Plains, approaching the Mississippi River Wednesday night. Moisture levels remain high through the Short Term (with precipitable h20 values in the 1.5"-1.7" range, higher at times) as a low level ridge stretching west along the northern Gulf coast continues to move Gulf moisture inland. A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday as the first, upper level shortwave trough passes. With the trough passing to the northwest of the forecast area, highest PoPs are expected to be northwest of I-65. As the deep upper trough approaches, showers and thunderstorms are expected off and on from early Wednesday into Thursday night before a cold front moves east across the forecast area into Thursday night. Coverage with this second round is expected to be area wide, and with the greater areal and temporal coverage, when combined with the moist soils from the previous days, water issues may be a problem. This will be monitored for any possible watch. With the wet period over the forecast area and nearby, a tighter than normal diurnal temperatures range is expected. High temperatures will see the greatest effect, with around to below seasonal norms expected most of the period. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will generally top out in the around 80 to mid 80s most areas, with some upper 80s for those few areas that see a bit more sun. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s inland, around 70 along the coast are expected Monday night through Wednesday night. With the cold front ushering in a cooler and definitely drier airmass, clearing skies will allow for better radiational cooling Thursday night, with temperatures dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s, upper 60s along the coast. /16 && .EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Sunday/...The upper level trough that has moved over the Southeast stalls and weakens as the axis moves east of the forecast area. Southerly flow returns to the Southeast by Sunday as the low level ridge over the northern Golf coast rebuilds. With a dry airmass over the forecast area and near by, most of the extended is expected to be dry. The exception is a small possibility over the Western Florida Panhandle Sunday in an area of better low level flow. High temperatures rebound to above seasonal norms by the coming weekend. /16 && .MARINE...A moderate to occasionally stronger onshore flow prevails through Wednesday. Will have small craft exercise caution headlines for much of the area through Monday and expect these will be necessary again Tuesday night through Thursday morning. A moderate southwest flow follows for Thursday then switches northerly late Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area. The coverage of showers and storms is expected to the highest through Monday and also Wednesday through Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 69 82 68 85 72 83 69 84 / 80 90 50 50 30 90 70 70 Pensacola 72 83 71 84 74 83 70 84 / 70 80 40 40 30 70 70 80 Destin 73 82 73 83 75 84 73 82 / 60 80 30 30 30 60 60 80 Evergreen 66 80 65 85 68 84 67 81 / 70 80 40 40 20 70 60 80 Waynesboro 66 80 64 85 70 81 64 80 / 70 80 40 60 20 90 70 60 Camden 66 79 64 86 69 83 65 81 / 70 80 40 60 20 80 70 70 Crestview 69 82 67 86 69 85 67 82 / 60 80 40 40 20 70 60 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob