403 
FXUS64 KAMA 191907
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night

Hot today with Heat Advisory for Canyon and critical fire weather
conditions in the west and central. Cold front and reinforcing
surge Friday, but no rainfall expected.

Temps this afternoon have risen to the 90s and low 100s around the
area with a few hold outs of upper 80s in the northeast. The lee
side low has developed in eastern CO and is tightening the
pressure gradient this afternoon. Downsloping will bring afternoon
highs to the upper 90s and low 100s for everyone. Palo Duro Canyon
is already 101 on the floor and is expected to be 106 with a Heat
Advisory out until 7 PM this evening. The downsloping is also
drying out the area and dropping RH to single digits this
afternoon. Recent rainfall is evaporating quickly under these 
conditions, particularly for 1 hr fuels. Visual greenness shows 
quite a bit of cured grasses across the area. Thus critical fire 
weather is expected this afternoon across the western and central 
Panhandles. As the lee side low shifts southeast this afternoon
and evening, it will bring a cold front through the area. The
front will bring more gusty winds and should start crossing the
northern areas prior to sunrise and cross out of the southern
Panhandles by late morning. Due to the lack of moisture across the
Panhandles, the frontal passage will remain dry.

Another lee side low is expected to develop in New Mexico Friday
afternoon. This may shift winds a bit more southwesterly for the 
southwest Panhandles. It will also bring WAA and downsloping for
more critical fire weather concerns for the far southwest TX
Panhandle. A mid level shortwave will send a reinforcing surge of
cold air through the area Friday night. The new surge will bring 
overnight temps down to the 40s in the northwest. 

Beat

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...

Today will see critical fire weather conditions across the western
and central Panhandles. Winds will be southwesterly at 15-25 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph. RFTI values of 3 to 6 are expected. ERC
values are 75th to 95th percentile. Fuels are always difficult
during transition periods. Visual greenness maps show still cured
fuels over much of the area and recent rainfall is being
evaporated quickly in the hot and dry conditions. 

Friday is expected to see critical fire weather conditions in
Oldham and Deaf Smith counties due to the lee side low in NM
bringing southwest winds to that area and more drying. ERCs for
that area may be above the 95th percentile. RFTI values may be 4
to 5. Some areas...Randall, Potter, Hartley...may be elevated.

Beat

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A cold front will move through the Panhandles by the first half 
of Saturday. This will keep temperatures throughout the long term 
forecast period below average, in contrast to record breaking heat
the majority of the first half of May.

High temperatures for Saturday, the coolest day in the extended
period will range from the upper 50s in the NW Panhandles to 
lower 70s for the southern TX Panhandle. Winds will be out of the
northeast at 15-25 mph, keeping the cooler airmass in place.
Looking at the latest model and numerical guidance, if winds can
diminish enough for the NW Panhandles, we may see a chance for
some frost in these areas. Will have to watch the wind forecast
closely going into Saturday night. Low temperatures on Saturday
will range from the mid 30s in the NW to mid 40s for the SE TX
Panhandle.

Going from Sunday through Wednesday, temperatures do remain below
average. In terms of precipitation chances, latest 19/12Z model
and numerical data begin to diverge. Starting Monday through
Wednesday, the more precipitation friendly outputs have a
developing cut off low centered over the TX Panhandle by Wednesday
with several rounds of precipitation potentially. Other global
model data have a more progressive H500 wave with precip chances 
for most of the Panhandles Monday and Tuesday before clearing out 
Wednesday. Will have to watch closely and hope data trends for 
much needed rainfall in the Panhandles. 

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  91  49  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  56  79  47  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Boise City OK              51  78  40  57  37 /   0   5   0   5   5 
Borger TX                  64  88  50  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              63  92  48  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  64  94  49  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               68  91  54  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 55  83  42  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  55  80  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Hereford TX                62  95  49  74  40 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                60  82  49  63  42 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Pampa TX                   63  86  49  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                66  90  54  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Wellington TX              68  95  56  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   5 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening 
 for the following zones: Palo Duro Canyon. Red Flag Warning for
 the western and central TX Panhandle until 9 PM CDT.

OK...Red Flag Warning for the western and central OK Panhandle
until 9 PM CDT.

&&

$$

16/29