403 FXUS64 KAMA 191907 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night Hot today with Heat Advisory for Canyon and critical fire weather conditions in the west and central. Cold front and reinforcing surge Friday, but no rainfall expected. Temps this afternoon have risen to the 90s and low 100s around the area with a few hold outs of upper 80s in the northeast. The lee side low has developed in eastern CO and is tightening the pressure gradient this afternoon. Downsloping will bring afternoon highs to the upper 90s and low 100s for everyone. Palo Duro Canyon is already 101 on the floor and is expected to be 106 with a Heat Advisory out until 7 PM this evening. The downsloping is also drying out the area and dropping RH to single digits this afternoon. Recent rainfall is evaporating quickly under these conditions, particularly for 1 hr fuels. Visual greenness shows quite a bit of cured grasses across the area. Thus critical fire weather is expected this afternoon across the western and central Panhandles. As the lee side low shifts southeast this afternoon and evening, it will bring a cold front through the area. The front will bring more gusty winds and should start crossing the northern areas prior to sunrise and cross out of the southern Panhandles by late morning. Due to the lack of moisture across the Panhandles, the frontal passage will remain dry. Another lee side low is expected to develop in New Mexico Friday afternoon. This may shift winds a bit more southwesterly for the southwest Panhandles. It will also bring WAA and downsloping for more critical fire weather concerns for the far southwest TX Panhandle. A mid level shortwave will send a reinforcing surge of cold air through the area Friday night. The new surge will bring overnight temps down to the 40s in the northwest. Beat && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday... Today will see critical fire weather conditions across the western and central Panhandles. Winds will be southwesterly at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. RFTI values of 3 to 6 are expected. ERC values are 75th to 95th percentile. Fuels are always difficult during transition periods. Visual greenness maps show still cured fuels over much of the area and recent rainfall is being evaporated quickly in the hot and dry conditions. Friday is expected to see critical fire weather conditions in Oldham and Deaf Smith counties due to the lee side low in NM bringing southwest winds to that area and more drying. ERCs for that area may be above the 95th percentile. RFTI values may be 4 to 5. Some areas...Randall, Potter, Hartley...may be elevated. Beat && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... A cold front will move through the Panhandles by the first half of Saturday. This will keep temperatures throughout the long term forecast period below average, in contrast to record breaking heat the majority of the first half of May. High temperatures for Saturday, the coolest day in the extended period will range from the upper 50s in the NW Panhandles to lower 70s for the southern TX Panhandle. Winds will be out of the northeast at 15-25 mph, keeping the cooler airmass in place. Looking at the latest model and numerical guidance, if winds can diminish enough for the NW Panhandles, we may see a chance for some frost in these areas. Will have to watch the wind forecast closely going into Saturday night. Low temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 30s in the NW to mid 40s for the SE TX Panhandle. Going from Sunday through Wednesday, temperatures do remain below average. In terms of precipitation chances, latest 19/12Z model and numerical data begin to diverge. Starting Monday through Wednesday, the more precipitation friendly outputs have a developing cut off low centered over the TX Panhandle by Wednesday with several rounds of precipitation potentially. Other global model data have a more progressive H500 wave with precip chances for most of the Panhandles Monday and Tuesday before clearing out Wednesday. Will have to watch closely and hope data trends for much needed rainfall in the Panhandles. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 91 49 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 56 79 47 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 5 Boise City OK 51 78 40 57 37 / 0 5 0 5 5 Borger TX 64 88 50 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 63 92 48 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 64 94 49 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 68 91 54 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 55 83 42 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 55 80 45 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 5 Hereford TX 62 95 49 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 60 82 49 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 5 Pampa TX 63 86 49 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 66 90 54 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 5 Wellington TX 68 95 56 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Palo Duro Canyon. Red Flag Warning for the western and central TX Panhandle until 9 PM CDT. OK...Red Flag Warning for the western and central OK Panhandle until 9 PM CDT. && $$ 16/29