405 
FXUS64 KMOB 070039
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
739 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022

.UPDATE...Forecast appears to be on track for this evening, with
mostly clear skies across the area. There have been an isolated
thunderstorm or two develop just to the east of our forecast area
over southeast AL, but thus far nothing in our area. This
convection is developing along the tail end of a cold front that 
is moving south across the area, and this front will be off the
coast and into the Gulf by late this evening. There is remaining
instability just ahead of the front, although very little overall
forcing (except for the frontal boundary itself), just enough for
some isolated convection. Instability drops sharply to the
northwest of the front back over our area, but with the boundary
moving across our extreme southeastern counties (Covington,
Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa) there could be an isolated
shower or storm over the next several hours. This potential is not
high enough to even warrant a PoP for the next few hours, but we
will monitor. Thereafter there will be no chance for rain
overnight, and at this point the forecast looks to remain rain
free for at least the next week or so. Daytime highs will be
getting quite hot over the weekend and into early next week
though, so that will be the primary weather concern over the next
several days. /12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ 

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected over the area through
the forecast. Westerly winds of 5 to 10 knots will shift to
northwest to northerly around 10 knots Saturday.
/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Showers and
thunderstorms have moved to the south and east of the local 
area, and therefore, the threat for severe weather has ended. 
Upper-level flow is beginning to turn more west-northwesterly as 
the axis of a trough passes overhead. The trough will continue 
pushing eastward throughout the day on Saturday, moving into the 
Western Atlantic by Saturday night. In its wake, upper-level 
ridging will begin to build over the Central US. At the surface, 
low pressure over the Ohio River Valley, which developed in 
response to the upper trough, will continue pushing off to the 
east through the remainder of the period. An associated frontal 
boundary, currently bisecting our CWA from northeast to southwest,
will take on a more east-west orientation throughout the evening 
hours. By early Saturday morning, the front will push off the 
coast as high pressure starts building in over the South-Central 
US, ushering in a much drier airmass. With PWATs dropping to 0.7 
to 0.9 inches and subsidence from deep-layer ridging in place, 
sunny skies and nonexistent rain chances will prevail for 
Saturday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s well inland 
to low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Highs on Saturday will be 
in the low 80s for our northern counties, and mid to upper 80s for
points south. Lastly, a HIGH RISK of rip currents will continue 
through Saturday afternoon. /96

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper
trough oriented over the East Coast drifts eastward and evolves 
into an upper low centered just off the North Carolina coast on
Monday. An upper ridge meanwhile amplifies while advancing from 
the central states and becomes oriented from the lower/mid 
Mississippi River valley to the eastern Great Lakes. A massive 
surface ridge shifts slowly eastward across the eastern states 
during the period which allows for northerly winds over the 
forecast area to gradually switch to a southeasterly flow. Dry 
conditions are expected to continue over the area through the 
period. Highs Sunday and Monday will range from 85 to 90 degrees.
Lows Sunday and Monday nights will range from around 60 degrees
northeast zones to the mid/upper 60s southwest zones and along 
the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the
period. /22

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The upper low centered
just off the North Carolina coast takes a slow and unusual
trajectory into the extreme southeast states through the period.
The upper ridge oriented from the lower/mid Mississippi River
valley to the eastern Great Lakes meanwhile slowly retreats
westward commensurate with the slow approach of the upper low. Dry
conditions should prevail through the period as we remain in the
subsidence region along the westerly periphery of the upper low. 
It will be very warm Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with highs 
in the upper 80s to mid 90s inland and mid 80s at the beaches. /22

MARINE...The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for our bays,
sounds, and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm as winds have 
decreased to below 20kts. Small craft, however, should still 
exercise caution for these areas through tonight. A Small Craft 
Advisory remains in effect for our 20-60 nm offshore waters 
through midnight tonight. Otherwise, moderate to strong 
southwesterly flow will turn northwesterly tonight as a cold front
moves through the area. Moderate westerly to northwesterly winds 
on Saturday will then turn northeasterly by Saturday night. Winds 
decrease further on Sunday as a light to moderate onshore flow 
develops and prevails through midweek. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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