405 FXUS64 KMOB 070039 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 739 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022 .UPDATE...Forecast appears to be on track for this evening, with mostly clear skies across the area. There have been an isolated thunderstorm or two develop just to the east of our forecast area over southeast AL, but thus far nothing in our area. This convection is developing along the tail end of a cold front that is moving south across the area, and this front will be off the coast and into the Gulf by late this evening. There is remaining instability just ahead of the front, although very little overall forcing (except for the frontal boundary itself), just enough for some isolated convection. Instability drops sharply to the northwest of the front back over our area, but with the boundary moving across our extreme southeastern counties (Covington, Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa) there could be an isolated shower or storm over the next several hours. This potential is not high enough to even warrant a PoP for the next few hours, but we will monitor. Thereafter there will be no chance for rain overnight, and at this point the forecast looks to remain rain free for at least the next week or so. Daytime highs will be getting quite hot over the weekend and into early next week though, so that will be the primary weather concern over the next several days. /12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ AVIATION... 00Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected over the area through the forecast. Westerly winds of 5 to 10 knots will shift to northwest to northerly around 10 knots Saturday. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Fri May 6 2022/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...Showers and thunderstorms have moved to the south and east of the local area, and therefore, the threat for severe weather has ended. Upper-level flow is beginning to turn more west-northwesterly as the axis of a trough passes overhead. The trough will continue pushing eastward throughout the day on Saturday, moving into the Western Atlantic by Saturday night. In its wake, upper-level ridging will begin to build over the Central US. At the surface, low pressure over the Ohio River Valley, which developed in response to the upper trough, will continue pushing off to the east through the remainder of the period. An associated frontal boundary, currently bisecting our CWA from northeast to southwest, will take on a more east-west orientation throughout the evening hours. By early Saturday morning, the front will push off the coast as high pressure starts building in over the South-Central US, ushering in a much drier airmass. With PWATs dropping to 0.7 to 0.9 inches and subsidence from deep-layer ridging in place, sunny skies and nonexistent rain chances will prevail for Saturday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s well inland to low to mid 60s closer to the coast. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 80s for our northern counties, and mid to upper 80s for points south. Lastly, a HIGH RISK of rip currents will continue through Saturday afternoon. /96 SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper trough oriented over the East Coast drifts eastward and evolves into an upper low centered just off the North Carolina coast on Monday. An upper ridge meanwhile amplifies while advancing from the central states and becomes oriented from the lower/mid Mississippi River valley to the eastern Great Lakes. A massive surface ridge shifts slowly eastward across the eastern states during the period which allows for northerly winds over the forecast area to gradually switch to a southeasterly flow. Dry conditions are expected to continue over the area through the period. Highs Sunday and Monday will range from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will range from around 60 degrees northeast zones to the mid/upper 60s southwest zones and along the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /22 EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The upper low centered just off the North Carolina coast takes a slow and unusual trajectory into the extreme southeast states through the period. The upper ridge oriented from the lower/mid Mississippi River valley to the eastern Great Lakes meanwhile slowly retreats westward commensurate with the slow approach of the upper low. Dry conditions should prevail through the period as we remain in the subsidence region along the westerly periphery of the upper low. It will be very warm Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s inland and mid 80s at the beaches. /22 MARINE...The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for our bays, sounds, and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm as winds have decreased to below 20kts. Small craft, however, should still exercise caution for these areas through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our 20-60 nm offshore waters through midnight tonight. Otherwise, moderate to strong southwesterly flow will turn northwesterly tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Moderate westerly to northwesterly winds on Saturday will then turn northeasterly by Saturday night. Winds decrease further on Sunday as a light to moderate onshore flow develops and prevails through midweek. /96 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob