331 
FXUS63 KOAX 262317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
617 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Our Red Flag Warning will continue into the early evening hours 
with a few more hours of stronger wind gust potential and lower RH
values. Otherwise, a pleasant evening is forecast with southerly 
winds and much warmer morning lows in the mid to upper 40s for 
most areas. 

A subtle shortwave trough currently off the California coast is 
forecast to quickly move northeast toward the the Central Plains 
Wednesday afternoon along with an associated surface low. An 
attendant warm front is forecast to extend eastward from the 
surface low into into east-central Nebraska by late Wednesday 
afternoon into the the early evening hours. Forecast soundings do 
indicate a fairly decent cap through late afternoon, but by late 
evening, we could start to seem a few elevated showers and 
thunderstorms develop in association with a 30-40kt veered 
nocturnal low level jet. Deterministic models continue show 
indications that a MCS could develop overnight to our south, 
especially across northeastern Kansas into Thursday morning. 

The focus for late in the week and into the weekend turns to a 
deepening and approaching trough/low. Southerly flow ahead of this 
system will allow increasing theta-e values across the region. The 
most active day for our region looks to be Friday ahead of the 
approaching and deepening trough. An associated surface warm front 
is forecast to lift north through the area with strong to severe 
storms possible, mainly along and south of I-80 as has been 
outlooked by SPC. Some uncertainty still remains on exact 
positioning of this front as many indications are of a double 
barreled surface low finally merging on top of the forecast area 
late Friday night. Still, beneficial rainfall does look likely 
across the area as the trough approaches the area Friday night into 
Saturday morning. As the system pulls northeast of the area, much of 
the southern half of the forecast area may remain dry through much 
of the remainder of the weekend with the northern half receiving 
more continued rainfall into late Saturday into early Sunday. A 
strong pressure gradient on the backside of the system looks to 
produce gusty northwesterly winds however. 

Forecast uncertainty increases as we move into day 7 of the forecast 
but trends are for another deepening trough to swing through the 
central Plains early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

VFR conditions expected through the period with increasing mid to
high clouds into Wednesday morning. May also see some cumulus 
develop with bases in the 5000 to 6000 ft layer at KOMA and KLNK 
by the afternoon. Otherwise, south/southeast winds should weaken 
for a brief period this evening before gusting 20 to 25 kts again 
through mid-morning Wednesday. Also expect some low level wind 
shear with 40 to 50 kt southwesterly winds above the surface. 
Winds will stay up at KOMA and KLNK through the day, but should 
come down at KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-016-017-
     030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...CA