331 FXUS63 KOAX 262317 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Our Red Flag Warning will continue into the early evening hours with a few more hours of stronger wind gust potential and lower RH values. Otherwise, a pleasant evening is forecast with southerly winds and much warmer morning lows in the mid to upper 40s for most areas. A subtle shortwave trough currently off the California coast is forecast to quickly move northeast toward the the Central Plains Wednesday afternoon along with an associated surface low. An attendant warm front is forecast to extend eastward from the surface low into into east-central Nebraska by late Wednesday afternoon into the the early evening hours. Forecast soundings do indicate a fairly decent cap through late afternoon, but by late evening, we could start to seem a few elevated showers and thunderstorms develop in association with a 30-40kt veered nocturnal low level jet. Deterministic models continue show indications that a MCS could develop overnight to our south, especially across northeastern Kansas into Thursday morning. The focus for late in the week and into the weekend turns to a deepening and approaching trough/low. Southerly flow ahead of this system will allow increasing theta-e values across the region. The most active day for our region looks to be Friday ahead of the approaching and deepening trough. An associated surface warm front is forecast to lift north through the area with strong to severe storms possible, mainly along and south of I-80 as has been outlooked by SPC. Some uncertainty still remains on exact positioning of this front as many indications are of a double barreled surface low finally merging on top of the forecast area late Friday night. Still, beneficial rainfall does look likely across the area as the trough approaches the area Friday night into Saturday morning. As the system pulls northeast of the area, much of the southern half of the forecast area may remain dry through much of the remainder of the weekend with the northern half receiving more continued rainfall into late Saturday into early Sunday. A strong pressure gradient on the backside of the system looks to produce gusty northwesterly winds however. Forecast uncertainty increases as we move into day 7 of the forecast but trends are for another deepening trough to swing through the central Plains early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 VFR conditions expected through the period with increasing mid to high clouds into Wednesday morning. May also see some cumulus develop with bases in the 5000 to 6000 ft layer at KOMA and KLNK by the afternoon. Otherwise, south/southeast winds should weaken for a brief period this evening before gusting 20 to 25 kts again through mid-morning Wednesday. Also expect some low level wind shear with 40 to 50 kt southwesterly winds above the surface. Winds will stay up at KOMA and KLNK through the day, but should come down at KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-016-017- 030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...CA