370 
FXUS62 KMLB 190725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Turning Breezy and Cooler With Deteriorating Seas and Surf...
...High Fire Weather Danger Today...

Current...Surface cool front is analyzed over the far northern CWA 
early this morning, but somewhat diffuse in the T/TD fields. Subtle 
veering of winds from NW to NNW noted behind the front but not much 
of an increase in speeds is occurring over land given the decoupled 
BLYR, however a narrow CU line observed in 3.9UM IR offshore between 
St. Augustine and Palm Coast denotes the northerly surge currently 
pushing toward the Volusia waters, and should reach there before 
sunrise. Current temps between 65-70F areawide under clear skies.

Today-tonight...Cool front will push southward across ECFL through
mid day, with winds shifting to north this morning and NE during
the mid-late afternoon, as a large high pressure ridge builds over
the eastern CONUS. A much drier, cooler air mass will take hold
with sunny skies inland and a few scraps of marine SCU developing
near the coast. Winds speeds 15-20mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, with
higher speeds/gusts closer to the coast. this will hold down max
temps into the L-M70s along the Volusia/Brevard barrier islands, 
U70s over the Treasure Coast and interior north and around 80F over 
the interior central-south. Cooler most areas tonight, however a 
stout NE breeze along the Space/Treasure Coasts will prevent BLYR 
decoupling, holding overnight temps there. Mins will reach L-M50s 
interior north, U50s-60F for the rest of the interior and inland 
sections of the coastal counties, and 60s eastward to the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure will steadily build across the 
area behind today's frontal passage as the high center drifts across 
the Carolinas to the Atlantic coast by Wednesday, quickly racing 
offshore into Thursday. A rather tight gradient will maintain breezy 
to windy easterly winds for most of the area through mid week 
especially along the coast. Dry air holds steady through Thursday 
with PW values near 0.60", keeping rain chances out of the mid term 
forecast. Temperatures will begin a warming trend, with Wednesday 
highs in the mid to upper 70s reaching the low 80s across the 
interior on Thursday. Similarly, the expected cool down for tonight 
will be short lived as lows creep back to the mid to upper 60s.

Friday-Tuesday...A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms 
returns to the forecast later in the week into next as moisture over 
the Caribbean is pulled north and east as a secondary surface ridge 
develops over the Carolinas. Breezy/windy conditions prevail through 
the weekend in brisk onshore flow, but appear to relax beginning 
Monday. Light showers are forecast mainly for the Treasure Coast 
towards Lake Okeechobee on Friday and Saturday, with rain chances 
expanding northward into next week as the mentioned moisture 
increase spreads over much of the forecast area. For now, have 
continued mention of thunder Sunday-Tuesday with the return for the 
potential of diurnal convection mainly across the interior in deep 
onshore flow.

The warming trend will continue well into next week, with weekend 
temps reaching the low 80s at the coast to mid/upper 80s inland, but 
a return to the 90s arrives Monday and Tuesday across the interior. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. SKC through 14-15Z with veering low level flow advecting 
shallow marine moisture over the coastal aerodromes, producing
SCT035-045 in SCU. N-NNE winds from 360-040, sustained 14-18KT
gusting as high as 22-26KT especially over the DAB-SUA corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...Based on C-MAN obs and satellite imagery, it appears 
the cool FROPA may wind up an hour or so slower than what had been 
advertised, otherwise the forecast remains on track. 20kt northerly 
wind surge will spread southward across the local Atlantic today, 
building seas to 4-6ft near shore and 6-8ft offshore this afternoon.
Wind speeds are forecast to drop by a couple kt overnight, however 
flow veers NE, which should help maintain sea heights, and thus SCA 
conditions are still forecast to continue in the outer portions of 
the 0-20nm legs.

Wednesday-Saturday...A tight pressure gradient from high pressure 
drifting across the western Atlantic will maintain poor to hazardous 
boating conditions through the upcoming weekend. Brisk onshore flow 
is anticipated with easterly winds near 20 knots across the waters, 
with seas of 5-7 ft and up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. The 
ongoing SCA will likely be extended due to lingering 7 ft seas into 
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tough call on possible upgrade from FWW to RFW at this time. While 
forecast ERCs are AOA 27, areas farthest inland have the lowest min 
RH values (27-35%) but also have slightly lower sustained 20ft wind 
speeds (12-13kt), which is right at the cusp of criteria. Areas to 
to the east should reach 14-18kt, however RH values are forecast to 
remain above 35%. For the time being, will keep the FWW up and defer 
to the day shift whether to upgrade to a RFW or cancel the watch. 
Regardless, HWO will mention a High Fire Weather Danger, given the 
dry/breezy conditions in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  59  76  64 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  81  59  80  64 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  77  64  76  67 /   0   0   0   0 
VRB  78  65  77  65 /   0   0   0   0 
LEE  78  56  79  62 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  78  57  78  63 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  80  60  80  65 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  79  65  78  65 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this 
     evening for Inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-
     Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard 
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard 
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday 
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian 
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Smith
AVIATION...Cristaldi