370 FXUS62 KMLB 190725 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 325 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 .DISCUSSION... ...Turning Breezy and Cooler With Deteriorating Seas and Surf... ...High Fire Weather Danger Today... Current...Surface cool front is analyzed over the far northern CWA early this morning, but somewhat diffuse in the T/TD fields. Subtle veering of winds from NW to NNW noted behind the front but not much of an increase in speeds is occurring over land given the decoupled BLYR, however a narrow CU line observed in 3.9UM IR offshore between St. Augustine and Palm Coast denotes the northerly surge currently pushing toward the Volusia waters, and should reach there before sunrise. Current temps between 65-70F areawide under clear skies. Today-tonight...Cool front will push southward across ECFL through mid day, with winds shifting to north this morning and NE during the mid-late afternoon, as a large high pressure ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. A much drier, cooler air mass will take hold with sunny skies inland and a few scraps of marine SCU developing near the coast. Winds speeds 15-20mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, with higher speeds/gusts closer to the coast. this will hold down max temps into the L-M70s along the Volusia/Brevard barrier islands, U70s over the Treasure Coast and interior north and around 80F over the interior central-south. Cooler most areas tonight, however a stout NE breeze along the Space/Treasure Coasts will prevent BLYR decoupling, holding overnight temps there. Mins will reach L-M50s interior north, U50s-60F for the rest of the interior and inland sections of the coastal counties, and 60s eastward to the coast. Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure will steadily build across the area behind today's frontal passage as the high center drifts across the Carolinas to the Atlantic coast by Wednesday, quickly racing offshore into Thursday. A rather tight gradient will maintain breezy to windy easterly winds for most of the area through mid week especially along the coast. Dry air holds steady through Thursday with PW values near 0.60", keeping rain chances out of the mid term forecast. Temperatures will begin a warming trend, with Wednesday highs in the mid to upper 70s reaching the low 80s across the interior on Thursday. Similarly, the expected cool down for tonight will be short lived as lows creep back to the mid to upper 60s. Friday-Tuesday...A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast later in the week into next as moisture over the Caribbean is pulled north and east as a secondary surface ridge develops over the Carolinas. Breezy/windy conditions prevail through the weekend in brisk onshore flow, but appear to relax beginning Monday. Light showers are forecast mainly for the Treasure Coast towards Lake Okeechobee on Friday and Saturday, with rain chances expanding northward into next week as the mentioned moisture increase spreads over much of the forecast area. For now, have continued mention of thunder Sunday-Tuesday with the return for the potential of diurnal convection mainly across the interior in deep onshore flow. The warming trend will continue well into next week, with weekend temps reaching the low 80s at the coast to mid/upper 80s inland, but a return to the 90s arrives Monday and Tuesday across the interior. && .AVIATION... VFR. SKC through 14-15Z with veering low level flow advecting shallow marine moisture over the coastal aerodromes, producing SCT035-045 in SCU. N-NNE winds from 360-040, sustained 14-18KT gusting as high as 22-26KT especially over the DAB-SUA corridor. && .MARINE... Today-tonight...Based on C-MAN obs and satellite imagery, it appears the cool FROPA may wind up an hour or so slower than what had been advertised, otherwise the forecast remains on track. 20kt northerly wind surge will spread southward across the local Atlantic today, building seas to 4-6ft near shore and 6-8ft offshore this afternoon. Wind speeds are forecast to drop by a couple kt overnight, however flow veers NE, which should help maintain sea heights, and thus SCA conditions are still forecast to continue in the outer portions of the 0-20nm legs. Wednesday-Saturday...A tight pressure gradient from high pressure drifting across the western Atlantic will maintain poor to hazardous boating conditions through the upcoming weekend. Brisk onshore flow is anticipated with easterly winds near 20 knots across the waters, with seas of 5-7 ft and up to 8 ft in the offshore waters. The ongoing SCA will likely be extended due to lingering 7 ft seas into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tough call on possible upgrade from FWW to RFW at this time. While forecast ERCs are AOA 27, areas farthest inland have the lowest min RH values (27-35%) but also have slightly lower sustained 20ft wind speeds (12-13kt), which is right at the cusp of criteria. Areas to to the east should reach 14-18kt, however RH values are forecast to remain above 35%. For the time being, will keep the FWW up and defer to the day shift whether to upgrade to a RFW or cancel the watch. Regardless, HWO will mention a High Fire Weather Danger, given the dry/breezy conditions in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 59 76 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 81 59 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 77 64 76 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 78 65 77 65 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 78 56 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 78 57 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 80 60 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 79 65 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for Inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange- Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cristaldi LONG TERM....Smith AVIATION...Cristaldi