038 
FXUS64 KBRO 090856
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
356 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): A series of 500 mb short 
waves will dig into the Pacific NW and the Northern Rockies 
throughout the weekend. This progression of short waves will develop 
a pretty strong surface low pressure system over the Central Plains 
States throughout today and Sun which will in turn crank up the low 
level winds from the S-SE throughout the short term forecast period. 
Accordingly, the WAA will be on the increase throughout Sun. The 
NAM/GFS and ECMWF short term temp trends appear to be 
underestimating the warmup through Sun and will be going above 
guidance mainly for high temp trends. 

As the surface winds increase throughout today and Sun, the 
potential for Wind Advisory conditions will be increasing. Expect 
the surface winds to be on the margin for Advisory criteria mainly 
for this afternoon. But will hold off on issuing the Advisory today. 
Will see how strong the LLJ is on this mornings BRO sounding and 
will update accordingly if the observed LLJ has increased. 

Short term pops will remain in the single digits as any deep layer 
moisture advection will be non-existent. 

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Mid level flow turns
southwesterly Sunday night as the next 500mb trough drops into the
Pacific Northwest and a weak ridge holds across the Yucatan. The 
surface high across the Gulf works east and settles across 
Bermuda, as waves of low pressure work through the Plains all 
week. This keeps moderate to strong southerly winds along the 
lower Texas coast in play nearly every day, and coupled with the 
southwesterly flow aloft, will help set up very warm temperatures,
with triple digit heat through mid week, and near record highs on
Wednesday. This likely also caps off any rain chance for Deep 
South Texas through mid week, although a 500mb shortwave ejecting 
northeast across the Coastal Bend, combined with an upper level 
jet Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, could warrant a second or 
third look over the next couple of days for isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms, mainly north of the CWA. 

A weak surface front arrives late Wednesday, breaking the triple 
digit heat for the remainder of the week. The frontal boundary is 
expected to stall along the border and eventually work back north 
into the weekend. Low pressure across northern Mexico, the 
proximity of the frontal boundary, the seabreeze, and afternoon 
heating across the Mexican plateau may kick up a couple of 
thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. 

Increased winds all week and lower relative humidity values will
continue fire weather concerns, with a Fire Weather Watch
potentially needed on Wednesday for near critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): The strengthening PGF will be 
the main story for the lower TX marine areas through Sun/Sun Night. 
Expect an extended period of SCA conditions for both the Bay and 
Gulf Waters as the S-SE surface winds increase ahead of the surface 
low developing across the Central Plains States. The conditions 
across the Bay waters may push up briefly close to Gale conditions 
by Sun afternoon. However, will not post a Gale Watch/Warning at 
this time as the duration of the Gale Force Gusts may be pretty 
limited. 

Sunday Night through Friday: Adverse marine conditions are
expected to generally continue through the week, with Small Craft
Advisories already in effect into Monday morning likely needing to
be continued into at least Thursday, if not Friday. Expect
moderate to strong southerly to southeasterly flow every day, with
elevated seas. 

&&

.Fire Weather...Have upgraded the existing Fire Weather Watch to a 
Red Flag Warning as the S-SE surface winds increase and the overall 
RH values remain pretty limited today. This Red Flag will include 
all areas except for the immediate coastal areas where the RH values 
will rebound pretty quickly today.  

Burning of any kind should be avoided through the weekend. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  66  81  70 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          85  69  86  70 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            86  66  88  70 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              89  66  95  70 /   0  10   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  65  98  69 /   0  10   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  69  75  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday 
     evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for 
     TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Monday 
     for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday 
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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60-Speece...Short Term/Aviation/Fire Weather
56-Hallman...Long Term/Upper Air