038 FXUS64 KBRO 090856 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 356 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): A series of 500 mb short waves will dig into the Pacific NW and the Northern Rockies throughout the weekend. This progression of short waves will develop a pretty strong surface low pressure system over the Central Plains States throughout today and Sun which will in turn crank up the low level winds from the S-SE throughout the short term forecast period. Accordingly, the WAA will be on the increase throughout Sun. The NAM/GFS and ECMWF short term temp trends appear to be underestimating the warmup through Sun and will be going above guidance mainly for high temp trends. As the surface winds increase throughout today and Sun, the potential for Wind Advisory conditions will be increasing. Expect the surface winds to be on the margin for Advisory criteria mainly for this afternoon. But will hold off on issuing the Advisory today. Will see how strong the LLJ is on this mornings BRO sounding and will update accordingly if the observed LLJ has increased. Short term pops will remain in the single digits as any deep layer moisture advection will be non-existent. .LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Mid level flow turns southwesterly Sunday night as the next 500mb trough drops into the Pacific Northwest and a weak ridge holds across the Yucatan. The surface high across the Gulf works east and settles across Bermuda, as waves of low pressure work through the Plains all week. This keeps moderate to strong southerly winds along the lower Texas coast in play nearly every day, and coupled with the southwesterly flow aloft, will help set up very warm temperatures, with triple digit heat through mid week, and near record highs on Wednesday. This likely also caps off any rain chance for Deep South Texas through mid week, although a 500mb shortwave ejecting northeast across the Coastal Bend, combined with an upper level jet Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, could warrant a second or third look over the next couple of days for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly north of the CWA. A weak surface front arrives late Wednesday, breaking the triple digit heat for the remainder of the week. The frontal boundary is expected to stall along the border and eventually work back north into the weekend. Low pressure across northern Mexico, the proximity of the frontal boundary, the seabreeze, and afternoon heating across the Mexican plateau may kick up a couple of thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Increased winds all week and lower relative humidity values will continue fire weather concerns, with a Fire Weather Watch potentially needed on Wednesday for near critical fire weather conditions. && .MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): The strengthening PGF will be the main story for the lower TX marine areas through Sun/Sun Night. Expect an extended period of SCA conditions for both the Bay and Gulf Waters as the S-SE surface winds increase ahead of the surface low developing across the Central Plains States. The conditions across the Bay waters may push up briefly close to Gale conditions by Sun afternoon. However, will not post a Gale Watch/Warning at this time as the duration of the Gale Force Gusts may be pretty limited. Sunday Night through Friday: Adverse marine conditions are expected to generally continue through the week, with Small Craft Advisories already in effect into Monday morning likely needing to be continued into at least Thursday, if not Friday. Expect moderate to strong southerly to southeasterly flow every day, with elevated seas. && .Fire Weather...Have upgraded the existing Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning as the S-SE surface winds increase and the overall RH values remain pretty limited today. This Red Flag will include all areas except for the immediate coastal areas where the RH values will rebound pretty quickly today. Burning of any kind should be avoided through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 66 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 85 69 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 66 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 89 66 95 70 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 65 98 69 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 69 75 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 60-Speece...Short Term/Aviation/Fire Weather 56-Hallman...Long Term/Upper Air