368 
FXUS64 KAMA 080558
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1258 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

.AVIATION...06z TAF Cycle...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with few to no
clouds. Northwest winds around 10 knots overnight will increase
to around 15 to 20 knots by late morning. A few gusts in the 25 to
30 knot range will be possible between 15z and about 00z. Marginal
low level wind shear is possible this morning through about 12z,
but not enough impact concern to include in TAF. 

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ 

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, winds will diminish at the terminal sites early
this evening, then increase some by late Friday morning. However,
wind speeds should be less than observed today. Overall, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through
late Friday afternoon. 

02

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night...

Northwest flow continues for the rest of today with winds in the 30-
40 mph range, gusting up to 65 mph.  Wind highlights continue to 
cover the northern and eastern Panhandles.  Areas to the south and 
west will still see breezy conditions, but more in the 20 to 30 mph 
range.  Large scale upper level trof will continue to spin over the 
Great Lakes region, and that is what continues to drive the 
northwest flow today and again tomorrow.  The main difference for 
tomorrow is that we will be in a transition tomorrow.  Strong jet 
aloft will be displaced further east and gradients will relax a bit, 
especially in the west.  Winds on Friday will be out of the 
northwest, but more in the 15-25 mph range and the stronger winds 
will be to the east.  By evening the winds should start to come back 
around to the west and then become light and variable as zonal flow 
starts to transition over the Panhandles.  H500 heights will 
gradually rise as the system exits east, and thus high temperatures 
should be more in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  With the lighter 
winds tonight, there will be a much better chance for a decent 
freeze across the northwest, but the areas to the southeast should 
be still in the mid 30s. 

Weber

FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning continues today and A Fire
Weather Watch will be in effect for the eastern Panhandles on
Friday. 

Strong northwest winds 25-40 gusting 40-65 mph will be in
play across much of the Panhandles for the rest of today. RH 
values will be in the 10 to 15 percent range. This will continue 
pose critical Fire Weather conditions across most of the area for 
the rest of today. RFTI's expected to be in the 4-6 range for the 
northern and eastern Panhandles, with 2-5 in the southwest 
Panhandles. 

Critical Fire Weather conditions will return again on Friday but it 
will be more focused in the eastern Panhandles where the winds will 
be in the 20-25 mph range.  Overall the RFTI's on Friday will be in 
the 2 to 3 range. So given the fuel dryness, it will be a critical 
day, but not as high end as yesterday and today.  

Weber

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night...

Dry and windy, dry and windy, dry and windy...the pattern
continues through the extended with fire weather an ongoing 
concern for the combined Panhandles. RH values are progged to be 
well below 15 percent Saturday through Wednesday. This is despite 
the influence of a frontal boundaries possibly in and out of the 
combined Panhandles Sunday through Wednesday. 

Saturday, southwest winds return to the area as a de-amplifying
ridge sits over the Great Plains with the first of two H5 
troughs digs into the northern Inner Mountain West. The upper 
level jet associated with this system will create cross barrier 
flow inducing leeside pressure falls. This will lead to breezy 20 
mph winds on Saturday and also a building of a LLTR over the 
Southern Great Plains through the weekend into early next week. 
H85 temperatures around 25 degrees C will be over much of West 
Texas into the combined Panhandles and eastern NM Saturday
afternoon. These warm H85 temperatures and southwest winds will 
result in afternoon temperatures well above normal in the 80s. Of 
course these warm daytime temperatures along with surface 
troughing will bring about RH values as low as 8 percent. 

Sunday night, the center of the leeside low will dip south from 
SE WY down into eastern CO and across into western KS resulting in
a cold front approaching the OK Panhandle. By Sunday afternoon
the frontal boundary is progged to bring northeasterly to 
easterly winds into the northeastern half of the combined 
Panhandles. There are slight differences to model solutions on 
the exact point it stalls and then retreats to the north in late 
afternoon. This could overall impact the exact high temperature in
the northeastern Panhandles Sunday by a few degrees. Overall 
though, it is looking to be less likely to impact the overall 
high temperatures. However, this may bring up the RH values in the
northeast creating more elevated fire weather conditions instead 
of critical fire weather conditions. 

H5 flow will become mostly zonal as the first trough moves east by
Monday afternoon. The second and more robust H5 trough (still
associated with the same H2 Low sitting over Alberta) will be 
moving south over CA into the Desert Southwest Monday into 
Tuesday. This trough will have a stronger H5 jet upwards of 80 to 
90 kts. Guidance is not in very good agreement on the progression
of this trough, but could possibly bring some much stronger winds
aloft to the combined Panhandles late Tuesday afternoon. The LLTR
is progged to rebuild after the first surface front retreats over
the area Monday into Tuesday with temperatures continuing into 
the 80s. If the timing works out this H5 trough and its associated
jet could lead to a bad fire weather day across portions of the 
Southern Great Plains sometime over Monday into Wednesday.

The next leeside low on Monday is looking to create a much 
steeper pressure gradient leading to 25 to 30 mph winds on Monday 
and Tuesday, as opposed to the 20 mph winds over the weekend. The
surface low that develops Monday is not looking to really move 
south over the combined Panhandles until Tuesday night with much 
cooler temperatures behind the front for Wednesday afternoon. 
Even with the cooler temperatures on Wed, much lower Td's will 
lead to a continual low Min RH values in the afternoon near 10 
percent.

Overall though, there are still some questions on how the first
front Sunday into Monday will impact overall conditions as model
guidance diverges. Uncertainty is still present on how Monday 
through Wednesday will play out, in terms of winds and 
temperatures based on the progression of the upper level system 
as well as frontal progressions. Critical fire weather conditions 
are a given (especially for the southwestern FA). However, one of 
these three days (Mon-Wed) could see a very impactful fire weather
day if the timing of a stacked jet and frontal boundaries can 
line up right over the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. 
Even if the Panhandles do not see an outbreak type wildfire day, 
somewhere in the Southern Great Plains is potentially going to see
one. 

Hoffeditz

Fire Weather...Saturday through Wednesday...

Overall Saturday through Wednesday, critical fire weather
conditions will be possible for portions of, if not all of the 
combined Panhandles. Over the weekend, winds will be more gradient
driven leading to general critical fire weather conditions. During
the weekend RH values will continue in the 8-14 percent range and
continue to be this low into next week. Will be watching Monday 
through Wednesday more closely though, as the possibility of 
windy conditions, brought on by a stacked jet this time, to 
possibly bring some extreme fire weather conditions to portions of
the Southern Great Plains. Model guidance still does not have a 
good consensus for Monday through Wednesday. However, Tuesday is 
looking to potentially be a wildfire outbreak day for the combined
Panhandles. 

Hoffeditz

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for 
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for 
     the following zones: Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$

7/99