368 FXUS64 KAMA 080558 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1258 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 .AVIATION...06z TAF Cycle... VFR conditions will prevail through the period with few to no clouds. Northwest winds around 10 knots overnight will increase to around 15 to 20 knots by late morning. A few gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range will be possible between 15z and about 00z. Marginal low level wind shear is possible this morning through about 12z, but not enough impact concern to include in TAF. Ward && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs, winds will diminish at the terminal sites early this evening, then increase some by late Friday morning. However, wind speeds should be less than observed today. Overall, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through late Friday afternoon. 02 PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night... Northwest flow continues for the rest of today with winds in the 30- 40 mph range, gusting up to 65 mph. Wind highlights continue to cover the northern and eastern Panhandles. Areas to the south and west will still see breezy conditions, but more in the 20 to 30 mph range. Large scale upper level trof will continue to spin over the Great Lakes region, and that is what continues to drive the northwest flow today and again tomorrow. The main difference for tomorrow is that we will be in a transition tomorrow. Strong jet aloft will be displaced further east and gradients will relax a bit, especially in the west. Winds on Friday will be out of the northwest, but more in the 15-25 mph range and the stronger winds will be to the east. By evening the winds should start to come back around to the west and then become light and variable as zonal flow starts to transition over the Panhandles. H500 heights will gradually rise as the system exits east, and thus high temperatures should be more in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the lighter winds tonight, there will be a much better chance for a decent freeze across the northwest, but the areas to the southeast should be still in the mid 30s. Weber FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning continues today and A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the eastern Panhandles on Friday. Strong northwest winds 25-40 gusting 40-65 mph will be in play across much of the Panhandles for the rest of today. RH values will be in the 10 to 15 percent range. This will continue pose critical Fire Weather conditions across most of the area for the rest of today. RFTI's expected to be in the 4-6 range for the northern and eastern Panhandles, with 2-5 in the southwest Panhandles. Critical Fire Weather conditions will return again on Friday but it will be more focused in the eastern Panhandles where the winds will be in the 20-25 mph range. Overall the RFTI's on Friday will be in the 2 to 3 range. So given the fuel dryness, it will be a critical day, but not as high end as yesterday and today. Weber LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night... Dry and windy, dry and windy, dry and windy...the pattern continues through the extended with fire weather an ongoing concern for the combined Panhandles. RH values are progged to be well below 15 percent Saturday through Wednesday. This is despite the influence of a frontal boundaries possibly in and out of the combined Panhandles Sunday through Wednesday. Saturday, southwest winds return to the area as a de-amplifying ridge sits over the Great Plains with the first of two H5 troughs digs into the northern Inner Mountain West. The upper level jet associated with this system will create cross barrier flow inducing leeside pressure falls. This will lead to breezy 20 mph winds on Saturday and also a building of a LLTR over the Southern Great Plains through the weekend into early next week. H85 temperatures around 25 degrees C will be over much of West Texas into the combined Panhandles and eastern NM Saturday afternoon. These warm H85 temperatures and southwest winds will result in afternoon temperatures well above normal in the 80s. Of course these warm daytime temperatures along with surface troughing will bring about RH values as low as 8 percent. Sunday night, the center of the leeside low will dip south from SE WY down into eastern CO and across into western KS resulting in a cold front approaching the OK Panhandle. By Sunday afternoon the frontal boundary is progged to bring northeasterly to easterly winds into the northeastern half of the combined Panhandles. There are slight differences to model solutions on the exact point it stalls and then retreats to the north in late afternoon. This could overall impact the exact high temperature in the northeastern Panhandles Sunday by a few degrees. Overall though, it is looking to be less likely to impact the overall high temperatures. However, this may bring up the RH values in the northeast creating more elevated fire weather conditions instead of critical fire weather conditions. H5 flow will become mostly zonal as the first trough moves east by Monday afternoon. The second and more robust H5 trough (still associated with the same H2 Low sitting over Alberta) will be moving south over CA into the Desert Southwest Monday into Tuesday. This trough will have a stronger H5 jet upwards of 80 to 90 kts. Guidance is not in very good agreement on the progression of this trough, but could possibly bring some much stronger winds aloft to the combined Panhandles late Tuesday afternoon. The LLTR is progged to rebuild after the first surface front retreats over the area Monday into Tuesday with temperatures continuing into the 80s. If the timing works out this H5 trough and its associated jet could lead to a bad fire weather day across portions of the Southern Great Plains sometime over Monday into Wednesday. The next leeside low on Monday is looking to create a much steeper pressure gradient leading to 25 to 30 mph winds on Monday and Tuesday, as opposed to the 20 mph winds over the weekend. The surface low that develops Monday is not looking to really move south over the combined Panhandles until Tuesday night with much cooler temperatures behind the front for Wednesday afternoon. Even with the cooler temperatures on Wed, much lower Td's will lead to a continual low Min RH values in the afternoon near 10 percent. Overall though, there are still some questions on how the first front Sunday into Monday will impact overall conditions as model guidance diverges. Uncertainty is still present on how Monday through Wednesday will play out, in terms of winds and temperatures based on the progression of the upper level system as well as frontal progressions. Critical fire weather conditions are a given (especially for the southwestern FA). However, one of these three days (Mon-Wed) could see a very impactful fire weather day if the timing of a stacked jet and frontal boundaries can line up right over the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Even if the Panhandles do not see an outbreak type wildfire day, somewhere in the Southern Great Plains is potentially going to see one. Hoffeditz Fire Weather...Saturday through Wednesday... Overall Saturday through Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions will be possible for portions of, if not all of the combined Panhandles. Over the weekend, winds will be more gradient driven leading to general critical fire weather conditions. During the weekend RH values will continue in the 8-14 percent range and continue to be this low into next week. Will be watching Monday through Wednesday more closely though, as the possibility of windy conditions, brought on by a stacked jet this time, to possibly bring some extreme fire weather conditions to portions of the Southern Great Plains. Model guidance still does not have a good consensus for Monday through Wednesday. However, Tuesday is looking to potentially be a wildfire outbreak day for the combined Panhandles. Hoffeditz && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth... Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson... Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler. OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for the following zones: Beaver...Texas. && $$ 7/99