481 
FXUS63 KFGF 070824
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Current radar trends indicate two bands of higher snowfall 
intensities from Argyle down to Hawley, with the northern end 
getting into the Grand Forks area, and from Starkweather down to 
Bald Hill Dam. Visibilities are ranging anywhere from one to four 
miles, but with the current winds still expecting some patchy areas 
of one-half mile visibility. Up to an inch additional snowfall 
accumulation is expected tonight, so some blowing and drifting will 
impact the morning commute, most notably with slick surfaces as 
temperatures have gone below freezing in some areas. 

Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue through the day 
tomorrow. Winds have fallen more in to the high end advisory range 
in the overnight hours, however should increase again by mid-morning 
with increased mixing and a bit stronger cold air advection. No 
plans to change any headlines tonight, especially since this has 
been the most impactful period of this event...and some travel
inconveniences can be expected during the morning commute.

Snowfall and sky will clear from NW to SE during the day, with 
any remaining snow clearing the SE zones by 00Z. Temperatures will
rise above freezing across the area, so do expect any blowing or 
drifting snow to end as the light coating melts, and have pulled 
any BLSN aft 00Z Friday. Warmest temperatures will be over the 
northwest, which should see at least partly sunny skies in the 
afternoon. Looking for temperatures in the upper 30s to maybe 40 
in the Devils Lake basin, with mid to low 30s elsewhere.

High pressure begins to slide over the area tonight into Friday, and 
with the clearing skies and decreasing winds, temperatures should 
fall well into the 20s overnight. Much sunnier Friday skies will 
allow the mercury to climb into the 30s and 40s with warmer 
temperatures as we go into the weekend (see long term discussion 
below).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Active spring pattern looks to persist into the extended time frame 
with a couple chances for precip next week. General synoptic pattern 
has good model agreement with progressive 500mb flow across much of 
CONUS as a weekend ridge gives way to robust short duration short 
wave Sunday then a more pronounced 500mb trough sets up to bring 
precip chances for much of the mid week. Ensemble members remain 
widespread for this mid week system so confidence in placement and 
timing is what it is at this time range...relatively low. 

Saturday will be dry with aforementioned 500mb ridge and sfc high 
pressure moving across the region. Temps will be in the 40s for 
highs through Tuesday and then in the 30s. A fast moving short wave 
will bring the next round of precip chances with ensembles 
indicating a 10 to 30% chance of a dusting of snow across the FA but 
only a 10 to 15% chance of an inch in the far north with most of the 
precip expected during the daytime Sunday. The low tracks quickly NE 
with precip amounts of a quarter inch or less at 60 to 80% with just 
a 10 to 20% chance of more than a half inch by Monday morning. Dry 
Monday with the next round of precip chances quickly entering the 
northern plains with a lead impulse of energy within the west to 
southwest flow aloft expected during the daytime Tuesday. This 
midweek system will be another spring system with plenty of moisture 
to work with the probability of at least a quarter inch ranging from 
35 to 70% from NE ND to west central MN. The probability of 1.0" of 
QPF ranges from 10 to 40% across the same area. As for snowfall 
amounts and impacts those will be determined from timing of precip 
day vs night, temps and snowfall rates, that said the chance for at 
least an inch ranges from 30 to 50% across the same areas as the 
precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

IFR conditions continue, as snow has wobbled back to the west and
is affecting even KDVL. Winds continue to gust over 35 kts, and 
not much will change overnight except differences in visibility as
heavier or lighter bands of snow move through. This will continue
for much of the morning before conditions will start to slowly 
improve, with vis coming up as snow tapers off, then ceilings 
coming up to MVFR. Some VFR is even possible by the end of the
period at KDVL. North to northwest winds will decrease just a bit
during the overnight hours, but pick back up again during the day
tomorrow with gusts up close to 50 kts possible. Winds should
start to slowly diminish by tomorrow evening, but will still be
gusting above 20 kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ008-
     016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029-030-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for 
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JR