481 FXUS63 KFGF 070824 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Current radar trends indicate two bands of higher snowfall intensities from Argyle down to Hawley, with the northern end getting into the Grand Forks area, and from Starkweather down to Bald Hill Dam. Visibilities are ranging anywhere from one to four miles, but with the current winds still expecting some patchy areas of one-half mile visibility. Up to an inch additional snowfall accumulation is expected tonight, so some blowing and drifting will impact the morning commute, most notably with slick surfaces as temperatures have gone below freezing in some areas. Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue through the day tomorrow. Winds have fallen more in to the high end advisory range in the overnight hours, however should increase again by mid-morning with increased mixing and a bit stronger cold air advection. No plans to change any headlines tonight, especially since this has been the most impactful period of this event...and some travel inconveniences can be expected during the morning commute. Snowfall and sky will clear from NW to SE during the day, with any remaining snow clearing the SE zones by 00Z. Temperatures will rise above freezing across the area, so do expect any blowing or drifting snow to end as the light coating melts, and have pulled any BLSN aft 00Z Friday. Warmest temperatures will be over the northwest, which should see at least partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Looking for temperatures in the upper 30s to maybe 40 in the Devils Lake basin, with mid to low 30s elsewhere. High pressure begins to slide over the area tonight into Friday, and with the clearing skies and decreasing winds, temperatures should fall well into the 20s overnight. Much sunnier Friday skies will allow the mercury to climb into the 30s and 40s with warmer temperatures as we go into the weekend (see long term discussion below). .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 Active spring pattern looks to persist into the extended time frame with a couple chances for precip next week. General synoptic pattern has good model agreement with progressive 500mb flow across much of CONUS as a weekend ridge gives way to robust short duration short wave Sunday then a more pronounced 500mb trough sets up to bring precip chances for much of the mid week. Ensemble members remain widespread for this mid week system so confidence in placement and timing is what it is at this time range...relatively low. Saturday will be dry with aforementioned 500mb ridge and sfc high pressure moving across the region. Temps will be in the 40s for highs through Tuesday and then in the 30s. A fast moving short wave will bring the next round of precip chances with ensembles indicating a 10 to 30% chance of a dusting of snow across the FA but only a 10 to 15% chance of an inch in the far north with most of the precip expected during the daytime Sunday. The low tracks quickly NE with precip amounts of a quarter inch or less at 60 to 80% with just a 10 to 20% chance of more than a half inch by Monday morning. Dry Monday with the next round of precip chances quickly entering the northern plains with a lead impulse of energy within the west to southwest flow aloft expected during the daytime Tuesday. This midweek system will be another spring system with plenty of moisture to work with the probability of at least a quarter inch ranging from 35 to 70% from NE ND to west central MN. The probability of 1.0" of QPF ranges from 10 to 40% across the same area. As for snowfall amounts and impacts those will be determined from timing of precip day vs night, temps and snowfall rates, that said the chance for at least an inch ranges from 30 to 50% across the same areas as the precip. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 IFR conditions continue, as snow has wobbled back to the west and is affecting even KDVL. Winds continue to gust over 35 kts, and not much will change overnight except differences in visibility as heavier or lighter bands of snow move through. This will continue for much of the morning before conditions will start to slowly improve, with vis coming up as snow tapers off, then ceilings coming up to MVFR. Some VFR is even possible by the end of the period at KDVL. North to northwest winds will decrease just a bit during the overnight hours, but pick back up again during the day tomorrow with gusts up close to 50 kts possible. Winds should start to slowly diminish by tomorrow evening, but will still be gusting above 20 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ008- 016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029-030-040. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. $$ SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...JR