459 
FXUS62 KMLB 040051
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022

.UPDATE...

Dry air won out across the south today as diurnal convection was 
forced well south into the southernmost peninsula, prompting early 
update to remove small chance for showers/storms there. Weak short 
wave trough aloft supporting a decaying MCS over the SE GOMEX will 
dampen as it slides east tonight. Was convection dies off, CS canopy 
will thin and shift east, allowing skies to clear across most of the 
CWA. Temps will drop into the U50s-L60s by sunrise Mon. ZFP/grids 
are in fine shape...no further update needed.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR overnight. MVFR CIGs possible in morning diurnal CU
field @SUA-VRB, along with isolated-scattered showers. Activity is 
more likely to develop inland from those coastal aerodromes, before 
pushing well inland along the ECSB. As such, have only included a 
brief VCSH period for KSUA 15Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight...NW-N winds near 10kt will steadily shift to NE with seas 
2-3ft near shore, 3-4ft well offshore. Inherited forecast is right on
top of the current winds/seas shown on the local buoys.

&&

Cristaldi/Rodriguez

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 310 PM EDT Sun Apr 3 2022) 

Monday...High pressure builds eastward off of the Mid-Atlantic coast 
with low level winds veering to the E/SE. This will gradually allow 
moisture to build back northward into tomorrow. A few showers will 
be possible, moving onshore and inland along the Treasure Coast into 
Okeechobee County in the morning. Then, isolated to scattered 
showers and potentially a few storms will occur into the afternoon, 
mainly from the Treasure Coast northwestward into Osceola and 
Okeechobee counties, where PoPs up to 30-50 percent exist. Farther 
north, drier conditions are expected. Skies will be mostly to partly 
sunny across much of the area, with highs in the upper 70s/around 80 
degrees along the coast, and low to mid 80s inland.

Monday night-Tuesday...Broad sfc high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic 
coast will continue to slowly push seaward through Monday night and 
Tuesday. Deep S-SE flow Tue will keep a humid warming trend, with 
developing thunder chcs during the aftn. PoPs will be 50 percent 
area wide, with a better chc along the coast due to psbl seabreeze 
forcing from mid to late aftn. Max temps will be in the mid 80s 
under mostly cloudy skies. 

Wednesday-Thursday...Latest guidance continues to indicate a slow 
moving frontal boundary initially just upstream early Wed sagging 
swd toward the peninsula by early Thu, accompanied by a developing 
chc of showers and storms. Plenty of avbl moisture may lead to a 
threat of locally heavy rains and deep convection Wed into Wed 
night. Present guid has a little higher rain chcs across N zones, 
but well into the sct and likely range area wide. Euro soln more 
favorable for deep convection Wed due to more forcing aloft. A 
favorable SW flow regime looks to persist into Thu, leading to sct 
to nmrs rain and thunder chcs Thu aftn ahead of the frontal boundary 
as increased moisture gets pushed into the area.

Friday-Saturday...A deep upper level trough anchored over the OH 
Valley, stretching into the northern Gulf coast will slowly shift 
eastward Fri into Sat. The frontal boundary is forecast to push 
through Friday, proving increasing rain chances through the 
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms for most of the area, with 
highest PoP (40 percent) from Indian River to southern Osceola 
county southward. Cool dry air will then filter into the local area 
behind the frontal passage, providing mostly sunny skies, no rain 
chances and cooler afternoon temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION...Some lingering MVFR conditions possible through late 
afternoon from KVRB-KSUA where greater cloud cover exists and a few 
showers and potentially an isolated storm may occur. Otherwise, 
VFR conditions are generally expected tonight into much of Monday.
Moisture does build back northward into tomorrow, with may 
generate isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few storms, 
mainly into the afternoon, south of Orlando. 

&&

.MARINE...
Monday...NE winds 10-15 knots will veer to east as high pressure 
north of the area shifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas 
will range from 2-3 feet nearshore and up to 3-4 feet offshore. A 
few storms could develop into tomorrow afternoon and push offshore, 
mainly south of Sebastian Inlet. 

Monday night-Wednesday...High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast 
will slowly push seaward through the time period, producing 
generally favorable conditions locally. South to southeast winds 
around 15 KT Monday night will increasing to 15-18 KT Tuesday 
afternoon, with fresh southerly flow continuing Wed. However, no 
headlines are expected for winds/ seas into at least midweek. Seas 2-
3 ft Mon night building to 3-4 ft across the Volusia and Brevard 
waters Tuesday, with seas decreasing back to 2-3ft by Wed afternoon. 

Thursday-Friday...S/SW flow 15 to 20 knots Thur becomes west around 
15 knots Friday as the next frontal passage looks to push through 
Friday. No sig hazards anticipated other than local storms moving 
offshore. Seas 2-3 ft Thur increases to 3-4 ft offshore on Friday, 
with seas building to 5 ft well offshore late Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  79  66  85 /   0  10  20  50 
MCO  61  84  67  89 /   0  20  20  50 
MLB  63  80  67  85 /   0  20  30  50 
VRB  63  81  67  86 /   0  30  40  50 
LEE  59  83  67  86 /   0  10  10  50 
SFB  59  82  66  87 /   0  10  20  50 
ORL  62  84  68  89 /   0  20  20  50 
FPR  63  81  67  86 /  10  40  40  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$